Wolverhampton (AW) 5:30 | Slims Pickins

Slims Favourite 90%

Wolverhampton (AW) · 5:30

Volendam

11/1

+67.5% EV +12.5% Edge Model 23.9% vs Market 11.5%

Slims Outsider 90%

Wolverhampton (AW) · 5:30

Volendam

11/1

+67.5% EV +12.5% Edge Model 23.9% vs Market 11.5%

Value Thesis +67.5% EV

Volendam

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
14-day trainer form is strong
Recent run was better than the finishing position

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Volendam carries 4 upside triggers.
Available race evidence is 76% complete.

Race Insight

Volendam

Model vs Market 23.9% vs 11.5%

Expected Value +67.5%

Confidence 90%

Data Completeness 76%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
14-day trainer form is strong
Recent run was better than the finishing position

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers 4

Race State Playable

Outsider EV +67.5%

Volendam rates as the value NAP at 23.9% fair chance versus 11.5% market probability (+67.5% EV). Volendam also shows a positive long-price edge. Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Full Runner List Back to board

Always Fearless

Richard Hannon

-31978 Draw 5 OR 55 RPR 51 TS 29 +0.0% EV +9.3% Edge Data 64%

Has an inconsistent profile, having scored over C&D last month off a 2lb lower mark but has only beaten two home in three runs since; hard to assess.

--

8.5 score

Wyvern

Miss Grace Barr(7) Patrick Morris

478838 Draw 2 OR 52 RPR 53 TS 36 +0.0% EV +1.5% Edge Data 82%

All six wins have been on AW but has yet to win beyond 1m and not in the best of form at present; has dropped to a career-low mark but doesn't look ready to take advantage.

--

5.6 score

No Knee Never

Mr Henry Callan James Owen

753316 Draw 9 OR 65 RPR 0 TS 0 +-62.7% EV +-13.2% Edge Data 82%

Rarely runs a bad race and won for the third time this year under Henry Callan at Lingfield (1m, AW) last Monday; possibly found the run coming too soon when below best back on turf at Beverley three days later; should not be far away if another quick run doesn't count against him.

9/4F

8.9 score

1st

Molly Valentine

Mr Jake Holman(7) Stephanie Cassidy

2980-0 Draw 13 OR 60 RPR 0 TS 0 +-3.2% EV +0.2% Edge Data 82%

All four wins when trained by Dean Ivory; finished last of 12 at Lingfield (1m2f, AW) on her sole start for Clare Hobson last month; headgear removed for stable debut; hard to make a case for.

80/1

5.3 score

7th

Alazwar

Miss Brodie Hampson Archie Watson

2-3702 Draw 4 OR 60 RPR 0 TS 0 +5.9% EV +4.3% Edge Data 73%

Has gone close when placed twice this year, latest when second of 11 at Lingfield (1m, AW) last Monday; on a decent mark and is one to consider.

5/1

9.9 score

9th

Stockpyle

Miss Rebecca Hitchen(5) Sam England

07878- Draw 8 OR 60 RPR 0 TS 0 +-43.5% EV +-1.8% Edge Data 64%

Four wins for William Muir and Chris Grassick; winless for current yard last year and has dropped to a career-low mark on first run for 209 days; may be best watched this time.

12/1

7.2 score

10th

Volendam Slims Favourite Slims Outsider

Miss Sarah Bowen Tony Carroll

226231 Draw 11 OR 60 RPR 0 TS 0 +67.5% EV +12.5% Edge Data 73%

Placed on four of her last five AW starts before getting off the mark at the 18th attempt back on turf at Bath (1m, good) 22 days ago; back up 7lb but she should remain competitive without looking an obvious one to follow up.

6/1

10.6 score

11th

Pessoa

Mr Jack Loughnane(7) Adrian Wintle

451230 Draw 12 OR 58 RPR 0 TS 0 +92.1% EV +5.3% Edge Data 91%

All seven wins have been here, including three over C&D; in the money twice here since his last win and holds place claims at least.

20/1

8.5 score

6th

Book Of Life

Mr Lucas Murphy(5) Patrick Morris

246243 Draw 3 OR 57 RPR 0 TS 0 +-57.8% EV +-4.2% Edge Data 91%

Doesn't win very often (2-38) but he's made the frame on his three starts this month and should not be far away.

8/1

7.3 score

2nd

Rainwater

Mr Eireann Cagney Richard & Peter Fahey

325685 Draw 6 OR 56 RPR 0 TS 0 +-72.2% EV +-10.5% Edge Data 73%

2-34 but only faded late after racing prominently at Doncaster (1m, good to soft) and met trouble in running when fifth of 12 at Southwell (7f, AW; 100-30) 12 days ago; on career-low mark and may be ready to take advantage.

4/1

7.6 score

5th

King Of The Dance

Miss Jessica Llewellyn(5) Bernard Llewellyn

4-4524 Draw 7 OR 54 RPR 0 TS 0 +-60.4% EV +-3.7% Edge Data 82%

Has run with credit since winning at Chepstow (7f, good to firm) last July but is a victim of his own consistency and probably needs to drop a couple of pounds before finding another opening.

10/1

6.9 score

3rd

Sassy Glory

Miss Amy Collier Mark Walford

104-05 Draw 10 OR 51 RPR 0 TS 0 +-59.3% EV +-2.6% Edge Data 82%

Breakthrough win at Newcastle (1m, AW) last September was her 23rd career start; not so hot since, so it's probably best to look elsewhere for win purposes.

14/1

6.4 score

4th

Port Louis

Miss Chelsea Edwards(7) Bernard Llewellyn

0-3920 Draw 1 OR 51 RPR 0 TS 0 +99.7% EV +2.9% Edge Data 73%

Both wins for Noel Meade in Ireland; runner-up in a big-field amateur jockeys' handicap at Doncaster (1m, good to soft) last month; slow to start last time at Lingfield and has an inconsistent profile.

40/1

7.4 score

8th

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Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

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