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Bath · 5:20

Watch Live Racing On fairplaybet.co.uk "Confined" Handicap (No Win Since The 2025 Flat Turf Season)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip5f
GoingFirm
Field6 runners
ClassClass 5
Race completed. Slims Favourite: Binadham · 2nd
Race detail

Binadham rates as the value NAP at 37.2% fair chance versus 19.8% market probability (+67.6% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

4:10 4:45 5:20 5:50 6:20 6:55 7:30 8:00
Slims Favourite 75%
Bath · 5:20

Binadham

4/1
+67.6% EV +17.5% Edge Model 37.3% vs Market 19.8%
Slims Outsider 75%
No pick published yet.
Value Thesis +67.6% EV

Binadham

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

  • Ratings stack up strongly against this field
  • Recent form profile is a major positive
  • Current price still underrates the chance
  • Recent run was better than the finishing position
Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

  • Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
  • Available race evidence is 70% complete.
Race Insight
Binadham
Model vs Market 37.3% vs 19.8%
Expected Value +67.6%
Confidence 75%
Data Completeness 70%
  • Ratings stack up strongly against this field
  • Recent form profile is a major positive
  • Current price still underrates the chance
  • Recent run was better than the finishing position
Favourite Vulnerability
Market Pressure
Market Efficiency 0%
Outsider Triggers N/A
Race State Playable
Outsider EV N/A

Binadham rates as the value NAP at 37.2% fair chance versus 19.8% market probability (+67.6% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Full Runner List Back to board
Rogue Bullet
Luke Morris Jack Jones
23106- Draw 3 OR 75 RPR 0 TS 0 +63.0% EV +10.6% Edge Data 64%

Dual winner over 5f/6f on good to firm last year, the most recent coming off a 3lb lower mark than today's; below his best on his final two starts last year and needs to return to form on his first start for 187 days.

6/1
18.7 score
5th
Binadham Slims Favourite
Billy Loughnane Kevin Philippart De Foy
42-633 Draw 2 OR 74 RPR 0 TS 0 +67.6% EV +17.5% Edge Data 73%

Without a win since his debut at Yarmouth in April 2024 but he's posted three solid efforts since returning from an 85-day break, including in first-time cheekpieces (retained) at Wolverhampton eight days ago; switches back to turf with good claims.

7/2
20.8 score
2nd
Law Of Average
Joey Haynes Chelsea Banham
66979- Draw 6 OR 72 RPR 0 TS 0 +-47.6% EV +-8.1% Edge Data 64%

Front-runner who has won four times from 20 starts; mostly struggled last year and failed to beat a rival home at Southwell when last seen 132 days ago; down another 2lb but others have stronger claims.

7/2
16.0 score
1st
Cayman Tai
Joe Leavy Richard Hannon
725525 Draw 1 OR 70 RPR 0 TS 0 +-45.6% EV +-9.2% Edge Data 73%

One win from 22 starts but he bumped into a thriving rival when beaten a head at Newcastle (6f, AW) last month; failed to build on that at Wolverhampton 25 days ago and needs to bounce back dropped in trip on this return to turf.

11/4F
16.8 score
3rd
Connie's Rose
Rossa Ryan Grace Harris
1856-5 Draw 4 OR 65 RPR 0 TS 0 +-60.4% EV +-11.4% Edge Data 82%

Front-runner whose ten wins on turf have included two over this C&D; possibly needed her first run for 179 days when fifth of 11 here over 5.5f last time and has to be of interest now dropping back in grade.

100/30
15.1 score
6th
Some Nightmare
Tyler Heard John O'Shea
343638 Draw 5 OR 56 RPR 0 TS 0 +8.5% EV +0.8% Edge Data 73%

Eight of his nine wins have been on turf, with the most recent coming at Chepstow (5f, good) last August; weakened late at Wolverhampton 20 days ago and now steps up in grade.

25/1
12.6 score
4th

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