Yarmouth · 2:40

Branfords Restaurant & Bar Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip7f

GoingGood To Firm

Field6 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

Baandee rates as the value NAP at 21.9% fair chance versus 11.9% market probability (+71% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

2:05 2:40 3:15 3:50 4:25 4:57 5:30

Slims Favourite 58%

Yarmouth · 2:40

Baandee

9/1

+71.1% EV +10.0% Edge Model 21.9% vs Market 11.9%

Slims Outsider 58%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +71.1% EV

Baandee

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Current price still underrates the chance
Recent run was better than the finishing position
Ratings stack up strongly against this field

Market Pressure No Bet

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 67% complete.

Race Insight

Baandee

Model vs Market 21.9% vs 11.9%

Expected Value +71.1%

Confidence 58%

Data Completeness 67%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Current price still underrates the chance
Recent run was better than the finishing position
Ratings stack up strongly against this field

Favourite Vulnerability

Stand Aside

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State No Bet

Outsider EV N/A

Baandee rates as the value NAP at 21.9% fair chance versus 11.9% market probability (+71% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Fashion People

William Buick John & Thady Gosden

1- Draw 4 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-34.3% EV +-18.6% Edge Data 64%

Mehmas first foal of a 7f 2yo winner (RPR 88); 1-2 for her first appearance in a six-runner maiden at Newcastle (7f, AW) in November and she led over 1f out for a clearcut win; promising.

30/100F

22.1 score

1st

Baandee Slims Favourite

Cieren Fallon Jack Morland

22-2 Draw 2 OR 75 RPR 0 TS 0 +71.0% EV +10.0% Edge Data 73%

Second in her three starts, all over 7f at Chelmsford (AW) and from the front on first two occasions; should play a major role if okay on turf.

7/1

18.8 score

2nd

Me An' All

George Wood John Ryan

9 Draw 3 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +115.8% EV +2.4% Edge Data 64%

150-1, beaten 18l in a newcomers race at Newmarket (1m, good) two weeks ago; should improve but hard to fancy just yet.

125/1

12.9 score

6th

Night Shining

Billy Loughnane George Boughey

6- Draw 5 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-41.8% EV +-3.9% Edge Data 64%

475,000gns yearling by Dark Angel; 9-2, slowly away and never dangerous when about 8l sixth of eight in maiden at Newmarket (6f, good to firm) last July; that's all that was seen of her as a 2yo but she did show some promise.

8/1

14.2 score

4th

Too Too Divine

Ross Coakley James Fanshawe

4- Draw 6 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +298.8% EV +10.5% Edge Data 64%

75,000gns yearling by Starman; weak 12-1 for maiden at Wolverhampton (7f, AW) in November, chasing the all-the-way winner over 4f before fading into last of four (all from major stables); could be a big improver this season, which she needs to be; market may guide.

25/1

16.9 score

5th

Venetian Sky

Tom Marquand William Haggas

0- Draw 1 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-10.9% EV +-0.4% Edge Data 64%

300,000euros yearling by St Mark's Basilica; tenth of 11 when 33-1 for a novice at Newmarket (7f, good to soft) in November but she showed promise to be in touch for 4f and could be the type to do a lot better.

9/1

15.3 score

3rd

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