Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.
Mao Shang Wong rates as the value NAP at 22.1% fair chance versus 7.9% market probability (+121% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Mao Shang Wong rates as the value NAP at 22.1% fair chance versus 7.9% market probability (+121% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Excuses when last seen but was otherwise expensive to follow for Roger Varian before picked up for 25,000gns in December; ran well first time out as a 2yo on Tapeta, though, and this mark should be within range if ready to go after six months off.
Not seen it out over 1m4f a couple of times since two wins in March, one over C&D; it might just be that his current mark is beyond him but there won't be any excuses tonight.
Won a 7f maiden on this card last year on his racecourse debut; struggled subsequently but this is a bit easier down another 3lb in first-time blinkers (wore cheekpieces when last seen); yard also run Jack Sparowe.
Two wins and a second from three runs on Tapeta, the second coming when clear with a progressive winner over C&D last August; turned over twice as favourite on turf this spring but holds decent claims once more.
Patchy during a limited campaign last year for Ed Dunlop; wins as a 3yo came on soft turf and this trip looks a bare minimum for her new yard on comeback.
Stays a deal further but has always liked it here and has run well a couple of times over C&D this year; a good pace would help but finished behind Say What You See on turf last time and others hold stronger claims.
Quite late in the day to be going beyond an extended 1m for the first time; often makes the running and can race freely, so will need to settle early from a wide stall back from ten weeks off; not in much form when last seen either way.
Progressive for cheekpieces going on early last year, with three course wins, latterly off a 4lb lower mark; again goes without the headgear back from six months off and there's nothing to suggest she's best caught fresh.
Wins for David O'Meara both came over C&D, including a division of this race two years ago; not beaten far at 100-1 here two months ago but looked flattered in a messy affair and he's generally struggled for this yard.
Buzzy gelding who won twice on turf last year; only run once before on the AW but this mark should be within range if he keeps calm in a first-time hood back from six months off.
Two C&D wins already this year, latterly off 4lb lower, and continues in form, the drop to 1m working against her when she came home nicely at Doncaster five weeks ago; goes on the shortlist.
Not as good now and prone to the occasional off-day; still to win over C&D but his record suggests he needs considering off this mark, especially given his two previous runs in cheekpieces both resulted in near-misses.
Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.