Hexham · 6:15

Max And Naomi Are Getting Married Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip2m4f

GoingGood

Field5 runners

ClassClass 3

Race detail

Sonigino rates as the value NAP at 52.4% fair chance versus 22.5% market probability (+109.6% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

4:40 5:15 5:45 6:15 6:45 7:15 7:45 8:15

Slims Favourite 75%

Hexham · 6:15

Sonigino

7/2

+109.6% EV +29.9% Edge Model 52.4% vs Market 22.5%

Slims Outsider 75%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +109.6% EV

Sonigino

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 73% complete.

Race Insight

Sonigino

Model vs Market 52.4% vs 22.5%

Expected Value +109.6%

Confidence 75%

Data Completeness 73%

Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Sonigino rates as the value NAP at 52.4% fair chance versus 22.5% market probability (+109.6% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Full Runner List Back to board

Sonigino Slims Favourite

Freddie Gingell Paul Nicholls

/0301- Draw 0 OR 132 RPR 0 TS 0 +109.6% EV +29.9% Edge Data 82%

Useful hurdler with 6-22 strike-rate; beat sole other finisher by 16l on chasing debut at Fakenham (2m5f, good) four weeks ago; that form is not easy to read but he jumped soundly and should go well again.

3/1

26.4 score

3rd

Rubber Ball

Jack Quinlan Neil King

7P180- Draw 0 OR 127 RPR 0 TS 0 +-56.4% EV +-12.4% Edge Data 73%

Not at his best in competitive handicap hurdles at Sandown in March and Aintree in April, but he'd previously won well at Newbury (2m, good to soft; probably stays 2m4f); began his career in points (1-1) and has a jumps pedigree so there's a reasonable chance he'll make a chaser; respected in first-time headgear.

11/4J

18.7 score

2nd

Crackerjacque

Sam Twiston-Davies Anthony Honeyball

/1512- Draw 0 OR 123 RPR 0 TS 0 +-6.5% EV +0.8% Edge Data 64%

Has had less racing than his rivals and his record is 3-7; gained second win over hurdles at Sandown (2m, heavy) in January and ran just as well when second at Fontwell next time; bred for chasing; may encounter quicker ground than he's used to, but otherwise he has plenty in his favour.

7/2

21.4 score

Kingston Narcissus

Charlie Maggs(3) Rebecca Menzies

33170- Draw 0 OR 115 RPR 0 TS 0 +-57.5% EV +-5.0% Edge Data 73%

Won over hurdles in a first-time tongue-strap (retained since) at Sedgefield (2m4f, good to soft) in December; however, two below-par runs have followed and he now goes over fences; others may have more potential.

17/2

15.1 score

1st

Moonshine Man

Brendan Powell Henrietta C Knight

2P243- Draw 0 OR 113 RPR 0 TS 0 +-59.9% EV +-13.3% Edge Data 64%

Already placed three times over fences, third of ten at Kempton (3m, good to soft) when last seen in February; faces a stiffer assignment here from 6lb out of the weights but his experience should stand him in good stead and he's not ruled out.

11/4J

18.4 score

4th

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