Kempton (AW) · 5:30

Barrie Wells Trust Box4Kids Fillies' Handicap (GBBplus Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip1m4f

GoingStandard To Slow

Field7 runners

ClassClass 3

Race detail

Dojin rates as the value NAP at 35.4% fair chance versus 19.8% market probability (+37.9% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

2:00 2:35 3:10 3:45 4:20 4:55 5:30 6:00

Slims Favourite 79%

Kempton (AW) · 5:30

Dojin

7/2

+37.9% EV +15.6% Edge Model 35.4% vs Market 19.8%

Slims Outsider 79%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +37.9% EV

Dojin

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance
Recent run was better than the finishing position

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 76% complete.

Race Insight

Dojin

Model vs Market 35.4% vs 19.8%

Expected Value +37.9%

Confidence 79%

Data Completeness 76%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance
Recent run was better than the finishing position

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Dojin rates as the value NAP at 35.4% fair chance versus 19.8% market probability (+37.9% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Full Runner List Back to board

Chilli Queen

David Probert Emma Lavelle

21112- Draw 7 OR 87 RPR 0 TS 0 +12.1% EV +9.2% Edge Data 64%

C&D winner who failed by a short head to complete a four-timer at Doncaster (1m4f, good to soft) last September; has run well fresh in the past, but whether she can do so after eight months off remains to be seen; market may help.

100/30

17.9 score

2nd

Club Class

Daniel Muscutt James Fanshawe

2312-4 Draw 6 OR 80 RPR 0 TS 0 +-59.7% EV +-11.3% Edge Data 82%

Most consistent last year (3232312) including a win over C&D in September; sent off odds-on when fourth of seven behind two of these on her reappearance over 1m3f here last month, but the return to this trip should help; high on list.

11/8F

14.7 score

4th

Dojin Slims Favourite

Cieren Fallon S Woods

3/13-1 Draw 4 OR 78 RPR 0 TS 0 +37.9% EV +15.6% Edge Data 82%

Made it 2-4 when defying a year's absence over 1m3f here last month with Caramay back in third and Club Class in fourth; 4lb higher, but still unexposed and no problem with the return to this trip; respected.

100/30

18.6 score

1st

Ma Belle Artiste

Sean Levey Robert Bevis

3/726/ Draw 3 OR 77 RPR 0 TS 0 +-33.9% EV +-0.6% Edge Data 64%

Dual turf winner for Joseph O'Brien but her form on the Flat and over hurdles for this yard has been patchy; plenty to prove back from 17 months off.

28/1

11.1 score

7th

Caramay

Lewis Edmunds William Muir & Chris Grassick

341333 Draw 5 OR 76 RPR 0 TS 0 +-26.3% EV +-0.4% Edge Data 91%

Tough mare who has been in good form on the AW since December (13341333), the wins coming at Southwell (1m4f, Tapeta) and here (1m3f); return to this trip should suit and unlikely to be far away.

9/1

13.1 score

3rd

Typical Woman

Ryan Kavanagh(5) Ian Williams

7461-8 Draw 1 OR 73 RPR 0 TS 0 +-4.7% EV +1.0% Edge Data 64%

Would have needed her Pontefract reappearance after eight months off, but she has never won off a mark this high and tends to come to life later in the year.

28/1

12.1 score

6th

Opera Wave

Luke Morris David Simcock

55212- Draw 2 OR 71 RPR 0 TS 0 +-75.9% EV +-13.4% Edge Data 64%

Her form figures suggest she improved once handicapping last year, but her Southwell win (1m3f, Tapeta) came in a slowly run race and she was beaten over 8l into second of three at Newmarket (1m2f, good) on her final outing; more needed back from six months off.

11/1

12.5 score

5th

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