Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.
Heraldry rates as the value NAP at 27.5% fair chance versus 19.2% market probability (+40.3% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Heraldry rates as the value NAP at 27.5% fair chance versus 19.2% market probability (+40.3% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
580,000euros yearling; by Kingman out of unraced sister to Group 1 winners Hydrangea (1m/1m4f), The United States (Australian 1m2f) and Hermosa (1,000 Guineas); only 5-2 at the time of his withdrawl (upset in stalls) at Kempton last month; respected debutant, assuming he's calmer.
Absent since fourth of five, recording a meagre RPR, in 7f AW maiden at Newcastle 14 months ago for George Boughey; best watched unless the market speaks positively.
Has something to find on his December AW efforts but is nicely bred and remains open to improvement; yard also runs interesting newcomer Kahin; heed the market signals.
Kingman colt; scored at Kempton kept to 1m/AW on reappearance, beating Big Eagle by a neck and building on his 2yo effort; could overcome a 7lb penalty with further progress plausible.
Showed promise with fourth of ten, behind a winner who looks a smart prospect, in the Wood Ditton (1m, good) at the Newmarket Craven meeting; one of the main contenders.
Belied his 50-1 odds with neck second to Heraldry at Kempton (1m, AW) on seasonal debut; now gets a 7lb pull with that rival and has possibilities provided the form is backed up.
Belied his 40-1 odds with 2l third of 25, faring best of the newcomers, in Newbury maiden (1m, good); the form looks quite useful; leading contender provided the promise is confirmed.
Mid-divison both outings, latest in big field at Newbury (1m) where he finished behind a couple of today's opponents; likely to be more interesting in handicaps shortly.
Only a modest fifth of eight in 1m AW maiden at Newcastle, running below market expectations; however, may do better switched to turf with the outing under his belt.
240,000gns foal; by Kingman out of maiden (RPR 81) half-sister to 7f/1m Listed winner Doom and daughter of US 9.5f/1m2f Grade 1 winning half-sister to 1m 2yo Group 1 scorer Sulk; trainer landed this race with a newcomer last year; interesting, especially if the market speaks favourably.
Too Darn Hot colt who cost 280,000gns as a yearling; appeared to need his 2yo outing at Kempton (7f, AW) where he finished fifth of eight; open to improvement this term.
Seemed in greater need of the outing/experience than Decade Of Time in big-field maiden at Newbury, finishing ninth; may get closer to that rival, with improvement plausible.
Turf debutant who has something to find on his AW efforts at about 1m, namely third at Wolverhampton then midfield at Southwell; handicaps may be more suitable soon.
Finished behind some of today's opponents, including stablemate Decade Of Time, at Newbury then failed to improve at Epsom; looks one for handicaps shortly.
Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.