Ffos Las · 4:18

Sean Bowen Champion Jockey Handicap Chase (ARC Summer Chase Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip3m

GoingGood

Field9 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

Copshill Lad rates as the value NAP at 38.9% fair chance versus 12.6% market probability (+148.9% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

2:48 3:18 3:48 4:18 4:48 5:22

Slims Favourite 90%

Ffos Las · 4:18

Copshill Lad

7/2

+148.9% EV +26.2% Edge Model 38.9% vs Market 12.7%

Slims Outsider 90%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +148.9% EV

Copshill Lad

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
14-day trainer form is strong
Current price still underrates the chance

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 76% complete.

Race Insight

Copshill Lad

Model vs Market 38.9% vs 12.7%

Expected Value +148.9%

Confidence 90%

Data Completeness 76%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
14-day trainer form is strong
Current price still underrates the chance

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Copshill Lad rates as the value NAP at 38.9% fair chance versus 12.6% market probability (+148.9% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Hell Hound

Conor O'Farrell Neil Mulholland

34/P1- Draw 0 OR 108 RPR 123 TS 92 +-54.9% EV +-10.7% Edge Data 82%

Bumper/hurdle winner who completed the set on only his second run over fences at Southwell (3m, good), where he won cosily by 3l; fair shout off 6lb higher but might not appreciate too much rain (good to soft would be acceptable).

12.0 score

Buckna

James Bowen Warren Greatrex

11P53- Draw 0 OR 120 RPR 0 TS 0 +35.8% EV +6.4% Edge Data 64%

Dual chase winner who got himself back on track in the new cheekpieces when third to The Boola Boss at Chepstow; no good thing to reverse those placings despite a 5lb pull on the winner but definite each-way chance.

4/1

12.4 score

7th

Fairlawn Flyer

Mr James Murray(7) Mickey Bowen

1123P- Draw 0 OR 118 RPR 0 TS 0 +-6.6% EV +1.3% Edge Data 64%

Won five in a row last year (good-soft), including the 3m6f Highland National at Perth; has been rather quiet in last two races, as he was beaten 21l when third over 3m5f and then was pulled up at Kelso (4m); capable but a bit risky today.

9/1

11.2 score

4th

The Boola Boss

Sean Bowen Rebecca Curtis

48341- Draw 0 OR 117 RPR 0 TS 0 +-28.3% EV +-1.6% Edge Data 73%

Record of 6-17 over fences after doing it comfortably at Chepstow (2m7f, good to soft) where Buckna was back in third; a likeable type who looks sure to give his running and be heavily involved; 5lb rise is fair.

5/2F

11.7 score

3rd

Imperial Alex

Stan Sheppard Tom Lacey

21075- Draw 0 OR 115 RPR 0 TS 0 +-74.8% EV +-8.4% Edge Data 82%

In career-best form last summer over 3m on good ground; soundly beaten in his last three races, disappointingly so at Warwick last time when back on his favoured surface (good); bit to prove now.

9/2

9.0 score

2nd

Galop De Chasse

Ned Fox(3) Venetia Williams

P/5F7- Draw 0 OR 114 RPR 0 TS 0 +-72.4% EV +-3.0% Edge Data 73%

He was weakening when falling in a small field at Bangor (2m4f, soft) and then tailed off at Newbury; too well handicapped to ignore but wouldn't be the percentage call.

18/1

7.3 score

1st

Copshill Lad Slims Favourite

Paul O'Brien Harry Derham

/1351- Draw 0 OR 112 RPR 0 TS 0 +148.9% EV +26.2% Edge Data 82%

Made it 2-4 over fences when he pulled clear with the second at Southwell (3m2f, good); no reason why he shouldn't be very competitive off 4lb higher.

100/30

15.2 score

6th

Karuma Grey

Elizabeth Gale(5) Barry John Murphy

2PF5P- Draw 0 OR 110 RPR 0 TS 0 +-86.1% EV +-5.2% Edge Data 82%

Inconsistent last season but wasn't beaten too far on his stable debut here before sent over 4m at Hexham; likes the mud so could do with some rain.

18/1

6.7 score

Arrycan

Jack Quinlan Nick Scholfield

P9205- Draw 0 OR 107 RPR 0 TS 0 +-79.5% EV +-2.7% Edge Data 82%

Four-time winner over fences but a 12yo now and his stable debut was a quiet one.

16/1

6.5 score

5th

Balkardy

Miss Eleanor Williams(7) Mrs C Williams

/156P- Draw 0 OR 105 RPR 0 TS 0 +-59.3% EV +-2.4% Edge Data 64%

Multiple winner but hasn't become easy to predict and followed two modest runs over hurdles with a pull-up on his return to fences at Ludlow; others safer.

28/1

8.1 score

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