Wolverhampton (AW) · 9:00

Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com Fillies' Handicap

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip6f

GoingStandard

Field6 runners

ClassClass 5

Race detail

Magna rates as the value NAP at 36.8% fair chance versus 18.4% market probability (+83.8% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

6:30 7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00

Slims Favourite 68%

Wolverhampton (AW) · 9:00

Magna

5/1

+83.8% EV +18.3% Edge Model 36.8% vs Market 18.4%

Slims Outsider 68%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +83.8% EV

Magna

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance
Ground conditions suit the selection

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 88% complete.

Race Insight

Magna

Model vs Market 36.8% vs 18.4%

Expected Value +83.8%

Confidence 68%

Data Completeness 88%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance
Ground conditions suit the selection

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Magna rates as the value NAP at 36.8% fair chance versus 18.4% market probability (+83.8% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

Full Runner List Back to board

So Sassy

George Wood James Fanshawe

4-2745 Draw 3 OR 68 RPR 0 TS 0 +-59.0% EV +-9.6% Edge Data 73%

Looked one to keep on the right side of when sweeping through late to win at Lingfield last summer (6f, AW); generally held her form since and she is now back to her winning mark; drops in grade today and she's a key player, albeit she could do with them going hard early.

6/1

14.6 score

5th

Magna Slims Favourite

Rossa Ryan Tony Carroll

123311 Draw 6 OR 66 RPR 0 TS 0 +83.8% EV +18.3% Edge Data 91%

Prominent racer who has won four of her seven starts since dropped back to sprint trips, including C&D; 6lb higher mark to contend with but she is 2-2 for Rossa Ryan and looks booked for another big run.

4/1

20.9 score

1st

Moostar

Silvestre De Sousa James Owen

023-23 Draw 4 OR 65 RPR 0 TS 0 +-45.1% EV +-9.8% Edge Data 82%

Four runs in a tongue tie have seen her record formfigures of 2323; now has a visor added but she has been well beaten when tried in cheekpieces in the past.

13/8F

16.9 score

2nd

Skellig Isle

Cieren Fallon Philip McBride

470-15 Draw 2 OR 65 RPR 0 TS 0 +50.6% EV +7.7% Edge Data 82%

Came from well back to win a 5f handicap at Chelmsford on her stable debut in March; unable to reproduce that form at Yarmouth last month; still has handicapping scope and returning to 6f/Class 5 can help.

4/1

18.1 score

4th

Daytona Lady

James Sullivan Ruth Carr

376-31 Draw 5 OR 64 RPR 0 TS 0 +-8.3% EV +-0.1% Edge Data 91%

Back to winning ways when seeing off five rivals over C&D (her third C&D success) two weeks ago; a 2lb rise doesn't handicap her out of things but she will need a good pace to aim at.

15/2

17.8 score

3rd

Court Drive

Saffie Osborne Gay Kelleway

27-456 Draw 1 OR 63 RPR 0 TS 0 +-71.6% EV +-6.5% Edge Data 64%

Has claims on this winter's best and she didn't get a clear shot at it over C&D when last seen nine weeks ago; others still appeal more for win purposes.

9/1

11.7 score

6th

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