Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.
Harvey rates as the value NAP at 15.9% fair chance versus 8.4% market probability (+75% EV). Londoner also shows a positive long-price edge. Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal; there are enough red flags to oppose at the price.
The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.
Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal; there are enough red flags to oppose at the price.
Harvey rates as the value NAP at 15.9% fair chance versus 8.4% market probability (+75% EV). Londoner also shows a positive long-price edge. Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal; there are enough red flags to oppose at the price.
Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal; there are enough red flags to oppose at the price.
Turf winner in France as a juvenile but ran just twice last year; career is advancing again now for new yard, with one AW third followed by his short-head win at Doncaster (1m2f, good to soft; came from towards rear) in March, so he needs a close look despite the absence of this season's hood.
Peak efforts have been on soft or heavy ground, including two wins as 3yo and a creditable place last June when last seen; only eight races in total and he could still have more to give, but substantial rain may be needed.
Solid as 2yo (three races, won debut) and clearcut winner in 13-runner handicap at Epsom (8.5f, good) last April; 9lb higher today but looked set for further progress; he has a mixed pedigree for stamina (by middle-distance sire out of 5f winner) and is drawn wide but has to be considered seriously.
Dual 1m2f winner on a sound surface early last summer but inconsistent since; first of four runs for new yard at Meydan this year was easily the best; drawn wide but has a good mark if back to form.
Smart form at his best in France and Ireland; however, latest start was the first time he's beaten a rival in his four runs for new yard, and even then he beat just one; cheekpieces (tried once last year, well beaten) return; at least he's way down the weights.
Usually thereabouts, including in AW campaign this year which culminated in a Lingfield 1m2f win five weeks ago; one concern is that he was below form last September on his only run at this track.
C&D winner (made most) on reappearance at this meeting last year and, from four return visits, he placed twice last July; ended the campaign with a career best to win at York (1m2f, good; came from midfield) in October, which sees him raised 6lb today but he has to be in serious calculations.
Five wins last year, one of them over C&D, and he's back on the scoresheet already after his narrow win at Ripon three weeks ago; up 5lb and drawn widest, but the first two were clear last time and he's never been better.
9.4f novice winner who's been runner-up over 1m4f/1m3f in all three of her handicaps; return to 1m2f may well be okay and she'll have a shout of the form is transferred on this turf debut.
Sole win was a maiden as 2yo on his only run at this track; none too consistent in his 11 starts since but recent reappearance was respectable and this return to 1m2f should be okay; record with blinkers or cheekpieces (both absent last time) gives encouragement for today's first-time visor; wide draw.
Placed in four of his first six starts in France before comfortably making all in a maiden at Angers (10.5f, soft) last September; left Godolphin and Andre Fabre for 44,000gns in October; gelded since; has wide draw for this British debut, probably needing some improvement.
Completed a hat-trick over 7f/1m on good/good to firm in May and June last year; right out of form in August/September but reappearance fourth at Epsom (8.5f) nine days ago was a step back in the right direction; looks bred for 1m2f (has had one attempt) but may need a career best.
Ran in four Irish maidens, best when never-nearer third of 14 at Dundalk (10.5f, AW debut) last September on final outing; left Johnny Murtagh and Aga Khan Studs for 24,000euros in November; needs marked improvement on this yard/handicap debut.
Runner-up over about 1m2f on four of eight starts last year, including in two handicaps and one was at this track; disappointing when 4-7 in a novice event on reappearance but back-to-form fourth of 14 in 1m2f handicap at Newbury on latest start; place claims again and cheekpieces are added.
Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.