Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.
Roaring Ralph rates as the value NAP at 32% fair chance versus 13.4% market probability (+79.2% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Roaring Ralph rates as the value NAP at 32% fair chance versus 13.4% market probability (+79.2% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Posted an improved effort when a close-up third of seven on his handicap debut at Yarmouth (1m, good to soft) 231 days ago and has since undergone gelding/wind operations; also has the tongue-tie back on and he's a contender back on the AW.
Three wins include two at this track (1m/1m3f), the most recent coming last July off a mark 1lb lower than today's; below his best here over 1m3f last month and better is needed now dropping back in trip with cheekpieces back on.
Kept on for third over this C&D on her handicap debut, doing best of those from off the pace, and posted another solid effort when fourth at Beverley (8.5f, good to soft) 22 days ago; good claims back on AW.
Has been in good form since the turn of the year and completed a C&D hat-trick when pulling clear to record a comfortable success 40 days ago; now steps back up in grade off this 9lb higher mark but he's still fairly treated on his old form.
Beaten 11l when fifth in a maiden hurdle at Hereford three weeks ago; only 1lb higher than for his win at Chepstow (1m4f, good) last May but will likely find this trip on the sharp side on his switch back to the Flat (all wins over 1m2f or further).
Stepped forward considerably from his stable debut and first start for 553 days when landing a C&D handicap 12 days ago (made all); that was his first try on the AW and he's respected off this 4lb higher mark.
Seven-race maiden who faded into fourth on his reappearance at Kempton (1m) 31 days ago after racing freely through the early stages; now 2lb lower and may come on for that outing.
Gained his fourth win at his track when coming from off the pace to win by a neck here in January; kept on into fifth behind Avatar Jet over C&D 12 days ago and has each-way claims if this is run to suit.
In good form last year, winning at Carlisle (1m, soft) in June and finishing runner-up on four occasions, most recently at Redcar (1m, good to soft) 291 days ago; needed his reappearance over this C&D last May and that may well be the case again.
Placed twice here in March prior to getting off the mark at Newcastle (1m, AW), winning by a nose; ran a solid race when fourth of 13 at Thirsk (1m, good) 27 days ago and has claims back on this surface.
0-10 but he posted some good efforts last year, including when beaten a neck (by one who won his next four) at Newcastle (1m, AW) 138 days ago; steps up in grade on his first start since.
Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.