Wolverhampton (AW) · 7:30

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip1m½f

GoingStandard

Field6 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

Withtearsinmyeyes rates as the value NAP at 31.8% fair chance versus 26.7% market probability (+6.5% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00

Slims Favourite 63%

Wolverhampton (AW) · 7:30

Withtearsinmyeyes

4/1

+6.5% EV +5.1% Edge Model 31.8% vs Market 26.7%

Slims Outsider 63%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +6.5% EV

Withtearsinmyeyes

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Current price still underrates the chance
14-day trainer form is strong
Ratings stack up strongly against this field

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 67% complete.

Race Insight

Withtearsinmyeyes

Model vs Market 31.8% vs 26.7%

Expected Value +6.5%

Confidence 63%

Data Completeness 67%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Current price still underrates the chance
14-day trainer form is strong
Ratings stack up strongly against this field

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Withtearsinmyeyes rates as the value NAP at 31.8% fair chance versus 26.7% market probability (+6.5% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Bintwafaa

Robbie Downey Roger Varian

Draw 5 +60.3% EV +7.1% Edge Data 46%

460,000euros yearling; half-sister to eight winners including Jan Brueghel (1m2f-14.5f including St Leger; RPR 126), Sovereign (8.5f 2yo/1m4f Irish Derby; 118) and Dawn Rising (1m4f-2m5f Flat including Group 3, 108; 2m4f hurdle); dam 7f 2yo winner (104); beautifully bred, but a hood enlisted for her debut does pose a question; market should reveal plenty.

20/1

16.9 score

Lightkiss

Jack Callan(3) George Boughey

4 Draw 6 RPR 78 TS 38 +49.4% EV +5.0% Edge Data 64%

Sent off 4-1 when fourth of seven on her Kempton debut (7f, Polytrack) last month; more will probably be needed.

40/1

16.0 score

Sapphire Secret

Joe Leavy Harry Charlton

9 Draw 3 RPR 75 +5.1% EV +0.7% Edge Data 64%

420,000gns yearling; 22-1 when well held on her Newbury debut (7f, good) three weeks ago, finishing just over 2l behind Seet; bred to be much better than that, though, including being a half-sister to a Group 3 AW winner.

50/1

12.7 score

Seet

Robert Havlin John & Thady Gosden

5 Draw 1 RPR 83 +-28.5% EV +-4.8% Edge Data 64%

425,000gns yearling; showed her inexperience but also some ability when fifth of 11 on her Newbury debut (7f, good; 17-2) three weeks ago; her half-sister Kalpana was top-class on both turf and AW, so a much bigger effort seems likely.

4/1

17.6 score

Silver Lake

Cieren Fallon William Haggas

7-6 Draw 4 RPR 86 +-50.1% EV +-13.0% Edge Data 64%

420,000gns yearling; notable connections but out of the frame in both starts over 7f/1m at Newmarket; half-sister to an AW winner, but handicaps over further may be her thing.

10/11

17.0 score

Withtearsinmyeyes Slims Favourite

George Bass Jack Channon

2 Draw 2 RPR 95 +6.5% EV +5.1% Edge Data 73%

Sent off 12-1 for last month's Nottingham debut (1m, good), but showed plenty of promise in finishing second of the 12 runners, splitting a couple of previous winners; that's the best form on offer and any improvement on it should make her hard to beat.

4/1

19.8 score

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