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Warwick · 6:37

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Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip3m1f
GoingGood
Field8 runners
ClassClass 5
Race detail

Blue In The West rates as the value NAP at 47.2% fair chance versus 5% market probability (+32.2% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal; there are enough red flags to oppose at the price.

5:35 6:07 6:37 7:07 7:37 8:07
Slims Favourite 90%
Warwick · 6:37

Blue In The West

7/4
+32.2% EV +42.2% Edge Model 47.2% vs Market 5.0%
Slims Outsider 90%
No pick published yet.
Value Thesis +32.2% EV

Blue In The West

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

  • Recent form profile is a major positive
  • Ratings stack up strongly against this field
  • Ground conditions suit the selection
  • Today’s trip looks ideal
Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal; there are enough red flags to oppose at the price.

  • Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
  • Available race evidence is 85% complete.
Race Insight
Blue In The West
Model vs Market 47.2% vs 5.0%
Expected Value +32.2%
Confidence 90%
Data Completeness 85%
  • Recent form profile is a major positive
  • Ratings stack up strongly against this field
  • Ground conditions suit the selection
  • Today’s trip looks ideal
Favourite Vulnerability
Market Pressure
Market Efficiency 0%
Outsider Triggers N/A
Race State Playable
Outsider EV N/A

Blue In The West rates as the value NAP at 47.2% fair chance versus 5% market probability (+32.2% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal; there are enough red flags to oppose at the price.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal; there are enough red flags to oppose at the price.

Full Runner List Back to board
Blue In The West Slims Favourite
Shane Quinlan(3) Ben Lund
32P12- Draw 0 OR 97 RPR 95 TS 84 +32.2% EV +42.2% Edge Data 82%
7/4
18.4 score
Danger Nap
Lorcan Williams Jonjo & A J O'Neill
0/6P4- Draw 0 OR 95 RPR 93 TS 65 +-93.2% EV +-6.9% Edge Data 82%
3/100
11.7 score
Kantagua Du Large
Harry Cobden Clive Boultbee-Brooks
56446- Draw 0 OR 93 RPR 97 TS 92 +-91.7% EV +-5.5% Edge Data 82%
3/100
12.3 score
Broadway Honey
James Turner(5) Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
53355- Draw 0 OR 93 RPR 96 TS 77 +-90.1% EV +-4.0% Edge Data 82%
3/100
12.8 score
Mexican Stan
Tom Broughton(5) Alastair Ralph
4/P45- Draw 0 OR 88 RPR 92 TS 79 +-95.3% EV +-9.0% Edge Data 91%
3/100
10.8 score
Silver Gale
Gavin Sheehan Katy Price
70032- Draw 0 OR 78 RPR 98 TS 90 +-81.2% EV +4.7% Edge Data 91%
3/100
14.8 score
Kingston Kid
Tabitha Worsley Georgie Howell
P/755- Draw 0 OR 77 RPR 87 TS 87 +-96.4% EV +-10.1% Edge Data 73%
3/100
10.1 score
Annies Gold
Murray Dodd(7) Nick Kent
/6PP5- Draw 0 OR 73 RPR 101 TS 80 +-97.7% EV +-11.3% Edge Data 82%
3/100
9.2 score

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