Lingfield (AW) · 5:20

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Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip1m4f

GoingStandard

Field8 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

Son Of Man rates as the value NAP at 44% fair chance versus 28.5% market probability (+31.9% EV).

2:15 2:45 3:15 3:45 4:15 4:45 5:20

Slims Favourite 89%

Lingfield (AW) · 5:20

Son Of Man

23/10

+31.9% EV +15.4% Edge Model 44.0% vs Market 28.5%

Slims Outsider 89%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +31.9% EV

Son Of Man

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Ground conditions suit the selection

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

The market still matters, but the aim is to find where price and reality have drifted apart.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 85% complete.

Race Insight

Son Of Man

Model vs Market 44.0% vs 28.5%

Expected Value +31.9%

Confidence 89%

Data Completeness 85%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Ground conditions suit the selection

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Son Of Man rates as the value NAP at 44% fair chance versus 28.5% market probability (+31.9% EV).

Full Runner List Back to board

Youthful King

Jack Dace(5) Luke Dace

6398-8 Draw 7 OR 85 RPR 0 TS 0 +4.6% EV +0.6% Edge Data 73%

C&D winner but he ended 2025 below par and beat one on his return from six months off in 1m4f Kempton handicap three weeks ago; needs to take a major step forward.

33/1

9.8 score

8th

Way Of Life

Olivia Tubb(5) Jonathan Portman

351-13 Draw 1 OR 84 RPR 0 TS 0 +-1.9% EV +2.1% Edge Data 73%

Kickstarted 2026 with success at Wolverhampton (9.5f) in March and backed it up with a good third of 12 in another 9.5f handicap there since; this C&D scorer can go well again off the same mark.

5/1

14.4 score

1st

Adjuvant

Joe Bradnam(7) Michael Bell

5020-3 Draw 8 OR 84 RPR 0 TS 0 +-18.9% EV +-0.4% Edge Data 73%

Winless since May 2023 but he reappeared from five months off the track with a good third of five in 2m Southwell handicap 18 days ago; not out of things on his Polytrack debut eased 1lb.

10/1

12.0 score

6th

Rogue Impact

Cieren Fallon James Owen

2009-9 Draw 3 OR 82 RPR 0 TS 0 +-6.2% EV +0.3% Edge Data 73%

Sole victory came over C&D but he has failed to beat a rival on his last two runs, gelded before coming in last of 9 at Kempton (1m4f) on his return three weeks ago; hard to warm to.

28/1

10.0 score

5th

Wonder

Taryn Langley(3) James Fanshawe

4-2122 Draw 5 OR 82 RPR 0 TS 0 +-42.1% EV +-8.5% Edge Data 91%

Thriving since the cheekpieces went on, scoring at Southwell (1m4f) in February and bettering that form when beaten 1l by Son Of Man over C&D 24 days ago; enjoys a 2lb weights pull now so he's a likely player.

9/4

14.7 score

3rd

Metallo

David Probert John Butler

4-2046 Draw 4 OR 82 RPR 0 TS 0 +-62.0% EV +-5.0% Edge Data 82%

On a long losing run but he comes here in decent form for his current yard, sixth of 14 in 1m2f handicap here 24 days ago; possibilities on his first go at this trip.

17/2

10.4 score

4th

Son Of Man Slims Favourite

Connor Planas(3) Jim Boyle

2-3351 Draw 6 OR 82 RPR 0 TS 0 +31.9% EV +15.4% Edge Data 91%

Gained a first success (since his debut in 2023) when edging out Wonder by 1l in 15-runner handicap over C&D 24 days ago; 2lb worse off here but still not taken lightly.

2/1F

18.1 score

2nd

Skibo

Hector Crouch Ralph Beckett

3/723- Draw 2 OR 76 RPR 0 TS 0 +-57.9% EV +-4.4% Edge Data 64%

Shaped well when placed in a pair of 1m2f Salisbury handicaps last summer; off eight months but this low-mileage son of New Approach should have more to offer in 2026, especially over 1m4f; interesting.

9/1

10.6 score

7th

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