Pontefract · 2:48

NARS Supports The National Horseracing College Handicap

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip5f

GoingGood

Field8 runners

ClassClass 5

Race detail

Keldeo rates as the value NAP at 22.7% fair chance versus 17.6% market probability (+24.6% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

1:43 2:13 2:48 3:23 3:58 4:33 5:08

Slims Favourite 61%

Pontefract · 2:48

Keldeo

3/1

+24.6% EV +5.1% Edge Model 22.7% vs Market 17.6%

Slims Outsider 61%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +24.6% EV

Keldeo

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Recent form profile is a major positive
Current price still underrates the chance
Ground conditions suit the selection

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 73% complete.

Race Insight

Keldeo

Model vs Market 22.7% vs 17.6%

Expected Value +24.6%

Confidence 61%

Data Completeness 73%

Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Recent form profile is a major positive
Current price still underrates the chance
Ground conditions suit the selection

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Keldeo rates as the value NAP at 22.7% fair chance versus 17.6% market probability (+24.6% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Call To Action

Lewis Chalkley(7) Michael & David Easterby

/0041- Draw 6 OR 74 RPR 0 TS 0 +101.8% EV +8.1% Edge Data 64%

Lightly raced 5yo; revived by blinkers last summer, following his Redcar fourth with a cosy win at Ripon (5f, good) 296 days ago; this 3lb higher mark is unlikely to prove beyond him but he is taking on match-fit opposition today.

8/1

13.4 score

2nd

Keldeo Slims Favourite

Harry Russell Ollie Pears

076-51 Draw 8 OR 73 RPR 0 TS 0 +24.6% EV +5.1% Edge Data 82%

C&D winner 12 months ago (good ground); back to winning ways in a 6f handicap at Catterick three weeks ago, doing well from a wide stall; has landed the widest draw again today and that could find her out.

5/2F

14.6 score

4th

General Assembly

Sean D Bowen Clare Hobson

07-622 Draw 7 OR 72 RPR 0 TS 0 +38.4% EV +4.4% Edge Data 64%

Front-runner; two AW wins (5f) last autumn and he was in good form when last seen in February; not much wiggle room off this mark though and a lower draw would have been preferable too.

14/1

13.2 score

5th

Alpine Girl

Ryan Sexton Julie Camacho

131-96 Draw 5 OR 71 RPR 0 TS 0 +-32.7% EV +-3.5% Edge Data 73%

Five-time turf winner; only 2lb higher than for her Redcar win last summer (6f, good to firm) and her two AW runs this year aren't the ones to judge her on (blindfold slow to be removed last time); leading contender.

5/1

11.4 score

1st

Jojo Rabbit

Warren Fentiman(3) Ruth Carr

77-816 Draw 2 OR 68 RPR 0 TS 0 +-48.1% EV +-10.0% Edge Data 73%

Made all to win over C&D on his penultimate start (good to soft; Class 6); not in the same form over 6f on AW 12 days ago but he is well drawn back at 5f and his rider's 3lb claim is a bonus; key player.

100/30

12.5 score

7th

Toomuchforme

Alex Jary(3) Antony Brittain

-73187 Draw 1 OR 66 RPR 0 TS 0 +140.8% EV +4.5% Edge Data 64%

Sprung a 33-1 surprise at Southwell last month (5f) but that has been followed by two disappointing runs; best turf form on good ground; others appeal more for win purposes.

20/1

11.3 score

8th

Rock Of England

P J McDonald Paul Midgley

543-91 Draw 4 OR 66 RPR 0 TS 0 +-43.9% EV +-10.7% Edge Data 73%

Stepped up on his low-key reappearance when winning a 5f handicap at Newcastle 16 days ago; this demands more up 4lb and he wasn't at his best in one C&D run last summer.

7/2

13.2 score

3rd

Invincible Crown

James Sullivan Ruth Carr

41049- Draw 3 OR 62 RPR 0 TS 0 +55.1% EV +2.0% Edge Data 64%

Seems happiest on AW nowadays; not at best at Wolverhampton when last seen in December; trainer may have stronger claims with Jojo Rabbit.

33/1

10.5 score

6th

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