Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.
Gold Star Gazing rates as the value NAP at 27.8% fair chance versus 26.2% market probability (+4.2% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Gold Star Gazing rates as the value NAP at 27.8% fair chance versus 26.2% market probability (+4.2% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
This will be his third run of the month and he was beaten around 9l at Pontefract and Ripon (both 6f); looks more of a handicap prospect; one of two runners for Tim Easterby.
Bought out of James Owen's yard for 3,500gns in February; fourth foal; half-brother to winners Pure Angel (5f AW 2yo; RPR 92) and Almotahed (KSA 6f-1m); dam 7f winner (76); already gelded; likely best watched unless market vibes are positive.
Similar profile (and has achieved a similar amount, albeit over 7f) to stablemate Agric Ranger in that he's having another quick run and looks likely to be seen to better effect once handicapping.
Again third, but good step forward in RPR terms, when kept to 7f at Kempton in November; the winner was making it 2-2 for Godolphin and the second won next time; has undergone wind surgery since and tongue-tie is retained here; yards 3yos are going particularly well and this one could add to their tally.
Much bigger price than third-placed Wezzeer on debut at Kempton 23 days ago (6f) but looked more streetwise than that rival, holding every chance over 1f out, before weakening into fourth; minor placing may be best hope here.
Small step forward, in RPR terms, at Newcastle last week but is still hard to fancy; should get a handicap mark after this.
Finished a few lengths behind the fourth at Leicester 16 days ago (6f) but it was a pleasing start; likely one for further down the line.
Third foal; half-brother to 5f/6f winner for this yard Sugar Baby (including AW; RPR 79); dam also won for this yard (6f/7f, including AW; 62); already gelded; trainer not noted for first-time-out winners on the Flat.
280,000gns yearling; learning on the job on debut at Kempton this month (6f; 9-2) before the penny dropped and he finished off well for third; looks set to take a good step forward and be even more heavily involved.
125-1 when down the field on debut at Newcastle in February (6f); sole filly and looks best watched.
Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.