Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.
Neyva's Angel rates as the value NAP at 31.6% fair chance versus 19.6% market probability (+36.7% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal; there are enough red flags to oppose at the price.
The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.
Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal; there are enough red flags to oppose at the price.
Neyva's Angel rates as the value NAP at 31.6% fair chance versus 19.6% market probability (+36.7% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal; there are enough red flags to oppose at the price.
Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal; there are enough red flags to oppose at the price.
On the back foot early due to issues at the start a couple of times of late but has also disappointed; weighted to go well if Oliver Hoodless, who rode a 33-1 winner in February, can get a good tune out of him.
Doubled his tally in Leger Legends race at Doncaster last September (comfortably made all at 40-1 despite going as far as 1m for the first/only time); just one run of note since but he did show more spark latest on his second run back from a break, in first-time blinkers (retained); not ruled out if taking to AW at the first attempt.
Back-to-back wins at Hamilton last September (6f); regular cheekpieces were left off for return and he shaped as if needing the run; can build on that in refitted headgear here; last AW run (over C&D) was his best effort on an artificial surface.
Outsider of the field both starts for Scott Dixon but didn't run like it, managing fourth then a front-running third; latest defeat was at the hands of the prolific Yorkshire Glory and Aisling Oscar; major claims on this drop in grade.
Big run on stable/handicap debut (formerly trained by Denis Quinn) at Wolverhampton last week (6f) when returning from over 15 months off; will take plenty of beating off the same mark if this doesn't come too soon; Hector Crouch is 10-46 (+11.32) for the yard in the last five years.
Typically lost ground at the start over C&D 24 days ago but came through to win under Oisin Orr; there may be enough pace in here, with the likes of Shazani, to set it up for the closers but 5lb rise demands more.
Triple AW winner who is just 1lb higher than when beating his 21 rivals at York last July (following wind surgery; winning the race for the second year in succession); completely blew the start at Wolverhampton last time and best watched today.
C&D winner off 1lb higher last autumn; not beaten far at Newcastle of late, most recently when forced to challenge on the far flank; non-runner when due to wear headgear here last time; no aids this evening.
Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.