Lingfield (AW) · 4:05

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Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip5f

GoingStandard

Field5 runners

ClassClass 6

Race detail

Wedgewood rates as the value NAP at 52.1% fair chance versus 14.9% market probability (+212.6% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal; there are enough red flags to oppose at the price.

2:20 2:55 3:30 4:05 4:35 5:07 5:40 6:10

Slims Favourite 90%

Lingfield (AW) · 4:05

Wedgewood

6/1

+212.7% EV +37.2% Edge Model 52.1% vs Market 14.9%

Slims Outsider 90%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +212.7% EV

Wedgewood

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Today’s trip looks ideal
Recent form profile is a major positive
Current price still underrates the chance
Ground conditions suit the selection

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal; there are enough red flags to oppose at the price.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 79% complete.

Race Insight

Wedgewood

Model vs Market 52.1% vs 14.9%

Expected Value +212.7%

Confidence 90%

Data Completeness 79%

Today’s trip looks ideal
Recent form profile is a major positive
Current price still underrates the chance
Ground conditions suit the selection

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal; there are enough red flags to oppose at the price.

Full Runner List Back to board

Desdemona

Ryan Kavanagh(5) Michael Attwater

622116 Draw 1 OR 65 RPR 0 TS 0 +-69.5% EV +-10.7% Edge Data 91%

Dual 5f Polytrack winner (once here) this year; not discredited in higher-grade company over 6f here last month and probably still on a workable mark for this drop back to her optimum trip; must be considered.

9/2

16.4 score

5th

Tuscan Point

Pat Cosgrave Adam Kirby

3-1252 Draw 2 OR 65 RPR 0 TS 0 +-58.1% EV +-28.5% Edge Data 82%

Won easily in today's headgear combination on last month's seasonal/stable debut at Southwell (6f, AW) and ran big race in defeat when dropped back to 5f at Catterick (good; wore cheekpieces) last week; quickly back in action before latest 2lb rise takes effect and may still have more to offer for new trainer.

4/6F

23.1 score

1st

Honour Your Dreams

Kieren Fox Michael Attwater

-76382 Draw 5 OR 59 RPR 0 TS 0 +33.6% EV +5.2% Edge Data 64%

On the downgrade now but placed over C&D on two of his last three appearances; no match for Desdemona when second on latter occasion but now 11lb better off; can make his presence felt.

15/2

20.8 score

4th

Wedgewood Slims Favourite

Luke Morris Tony Carroll

784-61 Draw 4 OR 58 RPR 0 TS 0 +212.6% EV +37.2% Edge Data 91%

Prominent racer who capitalised upon good mark when winning from stall 1 over C&D six weeks ago; only 2lb higher today but this race is competitive and others appeal more.

5/1

27.4 score

2nd

She Went Whoosh

Kieran O'Neill Scott Dixon

247884 Draw 3 OR 46 RPR 0 TS 0 +-70.3% EV +-3.1% Edge Data 91%

Didn't run badly when fourth over C&D last week but is now 0-11 for Scott Dixon and her overall profile remains unappealing.

18/1

12.3 score

3rd

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