Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.
Ghost Mode rates as the value NAP at 20.8% fair chance versus 13.5% market probability (+35.2% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Ghost Mode rates as the value NAP at 20.8% fair chance versus 13.5% market probability (+35.2% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
On the up when last seen, rounding off his 2yo campaign with a comfortable come-from-behind win in the Middle Park in September (6f, good to firm); may confirm his superiority over Brussels and Coppull despite the weights turnaround and he is not fully exposed just yet.
Progressive as a 2yo, winning five times and also second of 11 in the 2yo race over C&D on Champions Day; should appreciate the return to a stiff 6f having weakened over 7f in the Greenham two weeks ago; one to consider.
Won a 6f maiden at the Curragh on debut before a string of good efforts in defeat in good races, notably second-place finishes in the Middle Park (0.75l behind Wise Approach and 5lb better off) and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint; should be in the shake-up.
Third in the Coventry Stakes over C&D before winning the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood (6f, good); rounded off his juvenile campaign with a close third in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes (6f, good to firm), finishing on the heels of the reopposing Wise Approach and Brussels; stable won this race with Jasour, also a Group 2 winner as a 2yo, in 2024; one to take seriously.
All races at 7f, winning a maiden and a novice at Wolverhampton in good style before his creditable fifth in a Deauville Group 3 last month (good to soft); drops in trip with a tongue-tie added for a trainer who this in 2020 and 2023.
Promise on good to firm on debut; won his next three starts, two novice events and a York Listed race, before pulling his chance away over C&D on Champions Day; improvement required now upped to a Group 3 but he's in excellent hands and still has some potential.
Five runs as a 2yo; made debut over 6f but campaigned at 7f afterwards, running away with a maiden at Chester (good to soft) before a good second in a York sales race last October; absent for five months prior to a facile success in a 6f handicap at Southwell in March, racing freely and hanging left in the straight but in a different class to some fair handicappers; in much deeper today and looks to face a stiff task at the weights but the Southwell performance smacked of a hugely talented, if slightly wayward, colt and this stiff 6f should suit; unraced on faster than good.
Ran well in Listed/Group 3 company last summer following her maiden win at Hamilton and her two lesser efforts at the end of the campaign can both be excused; this free-going filly shouldn't mind the return to sprinting but she will need to raise her game a notch.
Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.