Goodwood · 4:25

Fitzdares Offers Top Prices At Goodwood Handicap

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip6f

GoingGood

Field9 runners

ClassClass 3

Race detail

Evening Saigon rates as the value NAP at 37.2% fair chance versus 13% market probability (+142% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

2:05 2:40 3:15 3:50 4:25 5:00 5:35

Slims Favourite 89%

Goodwood · 4:25

Evening Saigon

11/2

+142.0% EV +24.3% Edge Model 37.2% vs Market 13.0%

Slims Outsider 89%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +142.0% EV

Evening Saigon

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
14-day trainer form is strong

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 67% complete.

Race Insight

Evening Saigon

Model vs Market 37.2% vs 13.0%

Expected Value +142.0%

Confidence 89%

Data Completeness 67%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
14-day trainer form is strong

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Evening Saigon rates as the value NAP at 37.2% fair chance versus 13% market probability (+142% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Evening Saigon Slims Favourite

George Wood Hamad Al Jehani

2/10-1 Draw 2 OR 92 RPR 0 TS 0 +142.0% EV +24.3% Edge Data 73%

Low-mileage 4yo who got back on the up when making a winning return in 6f Newcastle handicap 18 days ago; up 3lb but had a bit in hand there and merits serious consideration.

11/2

15.6 score

2nd

Far Above Dream

Hollie Doyle James Owen

36101- Draw 3 OR 89 RPR 0 TS 0 +-47.3% EV +-9.7% Edge Data 64%

A three-time winner for James Owen in 2025, signing off with a second C&D success in October; has a career-high mark to overcome on his seasonal return but not taken at all lightly.

9/4F

12.9 score

1st

Moving Force

Ray Dawson Mark Loughnane

28650/ Draw 7 OR 89 RPR 0 TS 0 +40.1% EV +1.4% Edge Data 64%

A fairly useful 5f juvenile winner for Richard Fahey; changed hands for 17,000 guineas in January 2025 and he has his fitness to prove after 19 months off (also gelded) for his new yard here.

40/1

9.1 score

9th

Uncle Don

Jason Watson Robert Cowell

3647-2 Draw 4 OR 87 RPR 0 TS 0 +-58.1% EV +-11.3% Edge Data 73%

A fair 5f scorer for Richard Fahey; made a promising start for Robert Cowell after four months off when second of 12 in 6f Lingfield handicap four weeks ago; up 3lb but he must enter calculations.

11/4

11.9 score

5th

Dr Strangelove

Daniel Muscutt Oliver Cole

2017-4 Draw 6 OR 87 RPR 0 TS 0 +-24.1% EV +-0.4% Edge Data 73%

Gelded and off six months before a never-dangerous fourth of five in 6f Lingfield handicap 11 days ago; this dual 6f winner in 2025 can take a step forward now.

20/1

9.2 score

3rd

Many A Star

Saffie Osborne Jamie Osborne

1524-1 Draw 9 OR 86 RPR 0 TS 0 +162.5% EV +10.5% Edge Data 64%

Kickstarted 2026 with all-the-way 6f Wolverhampton win in February; up 2lb but this veteran C&D winner can't be discounted after a break.

16/1

12.8 score

8th

Diligently

Rob Hornby Clive Cox

0912-4 Draw 5 OR 86 RPR 0 TS 0 +-80.4% EV +-16.2% Edge Data 82%

Ended 2025 on the up and he returned from seven months off (gelded) with an encouraging fourth of 13 in 6f handicap at Newmarket 16 days ago; well in the mix off the same mark.

3/1

9.8 score

4th

Kiss And Run

Kieran O'Neill Rachel Cook & John Bridger

40223- Draw 8 OR 73 RPR 0 TS 0 +-18.2% EV +-0.1% Edge Data 64%

Course scorer who largely ran well without winning in 2025; she has a good record fresh too, so needs considering on her seasonal return.

28/1

8.7 score

7th

Spring Bloom

Tyler Heard John Butler

5737-2 Draw 1 OR 71 RPR 0 TS 0 +19.2% EV +1.5% Edge Data 82%

On a long losing sequence but he made a good start for his new yard (formerly with Darryll Holland) when second of nine in 6f Leicester handicap 18 days ago; more is needed from 3lb out of the handicap here though.

22/1

10.0 score

6th

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