Warwick · 6:15

Jonathan Neesom Memorial Open Hunters' Chase

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip3m1½f

GoingGood

Field4 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

Corporal Jackjones rates as the value NAP at 69.3% fair chance versus 26.7% market probability (+142.5% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

4:30 5:05 5:40 6:15 6:50 7:25 8:00

Slims Favourite 78%

Warwick · 6:15

Corporal Jackjones

2/1

+142.5% EV +42.6% Edge Model 69.3% vs Market 26.7%

Slims Outsider 78%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +142.5% EV

Corporal Jackjones

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
14-day trainer form is strong

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 70% complete.

Race Insight

Corporal Jackjones

Model vs Market 69.3% vs 26.7%

Expected Value +142.5%

Confidence 78%

Data Completeness 70%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
14-day trainer form is strong

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Corporal Jackjones rates as the value NAP at 69.3% fair chance versus 26.7% market probability (+142.5% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Corporal Jackjones Slims Favourite

Mr Darren Andrews(7) Miss Poppy Skipper

11212- Draw 0 OR 111 RPR 0 TS 0 +142.5% EV +42.6% Edge Data 73%

More than 5l too good in a Stratford novice hunter in March (2m5f, soft) despite whacking the last, and no shame since when second at Lower Machen giving the prolific Fumet d'Oudairies 3lb; could argue he's marginally more compelling at sub-3m trips, but among the likeliest even so.

5/2

34.2 score

1st

Crawter

Mr Joshua Newman Mrs Harriet Waight

3P281- Draw 0 OR 114 RPR 0 TS 0 +-70.0% EV +-19.5% Edge Data 73%

Landed the intermediate on this card last term (good) despite his customary habit of jumping right; listless display at Exeter on his most recent hunter chase outing and had to work hard to land the odds in a 3m6f Larkhill open since (good to firm).

9/4

21.6 score

3rd

Imperial Esprit

Mr Sean O'Connor(3) R W Varnham

21121- Draw 0 OR 116 RPR 0 TS 0 +82.8% EV +6.9% Edge Data 64%

Exposed, but also placed in hunter chases on last three visits to Stratford (all sub-3m) and notably a winner during May in each of the previous three years; respected, for all that there's not huge substance to some of this spring's successes (two conditions events and a walkover).

12/1

23.7 score

2nd

Kilfilum Woods

Mr Huw Edwards(3) Francesca Poste

22112- Draw 0 OR 97 RPR 0 TS 0 +-81.4% EV +-29.9% Edge Data 55%

Found only the prolific Grace A Vous Enki too good in the Lady Dudley Cup classic at Chaddesley Corbett last time (3m2f), having won two opens over shorter immediately before (all on good); first-fence casualty when last seen in a hunter chase, but generally a safe conveyance nowadays.

6/4F

20.5 score

Need The Rest Of The Board?

Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.

Back To Today’s Picks Membership