Warwick · 7:25

Foran Equine Open Hunters' Chase

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip4m1f

GoingGood

Field4 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

Jeffery's Cross rates as the value NAP at 59.7% fair chance versus 49% market probability (+9.3% EV).

4:30 5:05 5:40 6:15 6:50 7:25 8:00

Slims Favourite 80%

Warwick · 7:25

Jeffery's Cross

4/5

+9.3% EV +10.7% Edge Model 59.8% vs Market 49.0%

Slims Outsider 80%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +9.3% EV

Jeffery's Cross

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
14-day trainer form is strong

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

The market still matters, but the aim is to find where price and reality have drifted apart.

Market efficiency is running at 18%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 64% complete.

Race Insight

Jeffery's Cross

Model vs Market 59.8% vs 49.0%

Expected Value +9.3%

Confidence 80%

Data Completeness 64%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
14-day trainer form is strong

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 18%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Jeffery's Cross rates as the value NAP at 59.7% fair chance versus 49% market probability (+9.3% EV).

Full Runner List Back to board

Myth Buster

Miss L A N Bradstock

/P511- Draw 0 OR 113 RPR 121 +0.0% EV +5.0% Edge Data 36%

Possibly softened up by the pace battle when pulling up in this race last year (28-1), but generally a sound stayer and has made every yard in his two most recent points (good, good to soft); chance as long as Lily Bradstock, who knows him so well, can keep him interested.

15.7 score

Jeffery's Cross Slims Favourite

Mr Sean O'Connor(3) Dan Skelton

32211- Draw 0 OR 126 RPR 0 TS 0 +9.3% EV +10.7% Edge Data 73%

Beaten under 1l in this race last year (Myth Buster pulled up); won't mind the move from Cheltenham given his strong body of work around sharp tracks (including 2-2 in hurdles races here, albeit losing one for interference), and nice break since hard-fought Newbury win; ground fine.

5/6F

27.6 score

3rd

My Gift To You

Miss Gina Andrews James Owen

16942- Draw 0 OR 115 RPR 0 TS 0 +-66.5% EV +-17.3% Edge Data 64%

Highly impressive 26 finishes in the first four (eight of them wins) from 30 rules/pointing runs for the Owens, with stamina proven up to 3m6f; all-the-way hurdles winner over 3m2f here just last autumn (good), and likelier than some to run his race.

9/4

18.5 score

1st

Peaches And Cream

Mr Huw Edwards(3) Miss Laura Richardson

06712- Draw 0 OR 119 RPR 0 TS 0 +-29.1% EV +-2.2% Edge Data 55%

Punchestown 3m7f handicap chase win in April 2022 (good) remains his most recent under rules, but the first of two point starts netted him a last-gasp Bangor-on-Dee success in March; strike-rate of only 1-11 over 3m3f or more, but this would be easier than almost any of those.

15/2

17.6 score

2nd

Slipway

Miss Molly Armytage(7) James Luck

/5521- Draw 0 OR 125 RPR 0 TS 0 +16.3% EV +3.8% Edge Data 55%

Former winner of Highland and Southern Nationals (good to soft), so surprising he didn't see out 3m here on January's hunter chase debut; back on track in a Siddington novice riders' point latest, additionally a first career success on good ground; safe ride (never falls) and not dismissed.

6/1

20.6 score

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