Slims Pickins
Goodwood · 4:00

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Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip1m2f
GoingGood
Field9 runners
ClassClass 2
Race completed. Slims Favourite: Love Beach · 3rd
Race detail

Love Beach rates as the value NAP at 34.8% fair chance versus 26.2% market probability (+13% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Slims Favourite 90%
Goodwood · 4:00

Love Beach

11/4
+13.0% EV +8.6% Edge Model 34.8% vs Market 26.2%
Slims Outsider 90%
No pick published yet.
Value Thesis +13.0% EV

Love Beach

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

  • Recent form profile is a major positive
  • Today’s trip looks ideal
  • Current price still underrates the chance
  • 14-day trainer form is strong
Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

  • Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
  • Available race evidence is 70% complete.
Race Insight
Love Beach
Model vs Market 34.8% vs 26.2%
Expected Value +13.0%
Confidence 90%
Data Completeness 70%
  • Recent form profile is a major positive
  • Today’s trip looks ideal
  • Current price still underrates the chance
  • 14-day trainer form is strong
Favourite Vulnerability
Market Pressure
Market Efficiency 0%
Outsider Triggers N/A
Race State Playable
Outsider EV N/A

Love Beach rates as the value NAP at 34.8% fair chance versus 26.2% market probability (+13% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board
Alpha Crucis
Rhys Clutterbuck Gary & Josh Moore
0226-5 Draw 4 OR 92 RPR 114 TS 98 +0.0% EV +5.7% Edge Data 55%

A three-time course winner who returned from five months off with a good fifth of 21 in the Lincoln at Doncaster; he's proven over this longer trip so must enter calculations eased 1lb.

--
8.7 score
Too Soon
Harry Davies Gary & Josh Moore
5338-0 Draw 5 OR 90 RPR 111 TS 103 +0.0% EV +2.9% Edge Data 64%

Winless since 2024 but largely in good nick last season and not given a hard time of it when well held on his return in 1m2f Doncaster handicap in March; can take a step forward now.

--
7.4 score
Lord Melbourne
Joe Leavy Ralph Beckett
/16-50 Draw 9 OR 100 RPR 0 TS 0 +162.4% EV +7.7% Edge Data 64%

A very useful 1m2f/1m4f winner at his best but lightly raced in recent seasons and came in last of 11 in 1m2f AW Lingfield handicap in February; needs to take a big step forward after a break.

22/1
10.1 score
9th
Circus Of Rome
Finley Marsh Richard Hughes
71146- Draw 3 OR 98 RPR 0 TS 0 +-9.7% EV +0.4% Edge Data 64%

Enjoyed a very good 2025 (three-time 9.5f to 1m4f winner) and he signed off with a good sixth in 1m6f Ascot listed race in October when set a lot to do; hood goes on and can't be ruled out on his seasonal return.

12/1
9.1 score
5th
Al Aali
Darragh Keenan George Scott
062-00 Draw 2 OR 96 RPR 0 TS 0 +-1.9% EV +1.0% Edge Data 64%

A useful ex-French 9.5f scorer who failed to shine in a couple of 9f handicaps at Meydan for Fawzi Nass in February; since gelded and starts out for another new yard here.

12/1
9.2 score
8th
Majestic
George Bass Jack Channon
93080- Draw 6 OR 94 RPR 0 TS 0 +55.0% EV +4.1% Edge Data 64%

Very useful winner at his best; posted a good third over 1m4f here in August but below par on softer ground subsequently; not dismissed off a reduced mark on his return.

16/1
9.6 score
7th
Yabher
Cieren Fallon William Haggas
92101- Draw 7 OR 92 RPR 0 TS 0 +-63.4% EV +-14.9% Edge Data 64%

Ended last season firmly on the up with gutsy success in 1m4f Newmarket handicap in October; this low-mileage son of Sea The Stars has more to offer in 2026 and is well in the mix despite dropping in trip and up 6lb for his return.

9/4J
10.1 score
1st
Love Beach Slims Favourite
Daniel Muscutt James Fanshawe
5633-1 Draw 10 OR 91 RPR 0 TS 0 +13.0% EV +8.6% Edge Data 82%

Progressive son of New Bay who returned with an impressive victory in 1m2f Nottingham handicap last month; hiked up 8lb but showed a good turn of foot there so big shout.

9/4J
13.1 score
3rd
City Of Delight
Robert Havlin David Menuisier
9-0528 Draw 11 OR 90 RPR 0 TS 0 +-78.5% EV +-7.5% Edge Data 73%

Dual winner last spring (including over C&D) and comes here in good nick after a spell in Meydan; he's not discounted.

15/2
7.2 score
2nd
Samuel Colt
David Probert Amanda Perrett
9/05-0 Draw 8 OR 88 RPR 0 TS 0 +-4.3% EV +0.2% Edge Data 73%

Useful ex-Irish winner but he's offered little in a handful of runs for his current yard, beating just two in 1m Newbury handicap on his recent return; others are much preferred.

50/1
6.7 score
4th
Urban Glimpse
Callum Hutchinson Andrew Balding
6/224- Draw 1 OR 86 RPR 0 TS 0 +-64.3% EV +-8.2% Edge Data 64%

Looked on the up when twice runner-up in 1m2f handicaps at Sandown and York last spring; not seen out after posting just a fair fourth at Newmarket in July but subsequently gelded and remains with potential for yard among the winners.

5/1
8.7 score
6th

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