Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.
Oxagon rates as the value NAP at 18% fair chance versus 6.4% market probability (+133.4% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Oxagon rates as the value NAP at 18% fair chance versus 6.4% market probability (+133.4% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Reversed Dewhurst placings with Zavateri, an absentee from this race due to a setback, in the Greenham at Newbury (7f, good; Group 3) to take his record to 3-4; however, needs further progress, having finished behind several more of these in the Dewhurst, and is far from sure to get another easy lead (dictated the pace last time).
Two from two last year, both starts over 7f at Doncaster and getting up on the line in Listed grade the second time; finished nicely for 2l second to Oxagon, who dictated the pace, in the Craven over C&D (good) on reappearance having again been held up; open to further progress and could pick up some pieces in this big-field scenario, assuming the gallop is suitably strong.
Has plenty to find in this field and needs to settle better to boot, having raced too freely in Listed event last time when bidding for a Newcastle (1m, AW) double; behind Distant Storm on sole turf attempt; unlikely to emulate his sire Night Of Thunder, who landed this prize in 2014.
Son of 2,000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder and from the family of Dubawi; three from three last term, all starts over 1m, driven out for 1l success in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket (good to firm; Group 2) the final time; that wasn't necessarily a star performance but he keeps getting the job done and commands major respect, being a progressive colt who has a perfect record and has had a "faultless spring" according to his trainer; furthermore, he's already proven over C&D.
Aptly bred, being by Night Of Thunder and out of a mare by another 2,000 Guineas winner, namely George Washington; 1,900,000euros breeze-up purchase last spring and duly made a big splash in his 2yo races, aside from when pulling too hard in the Acomb; showed smart from at Newmarket (7f, good/good to firm) in the autumn, impressing in the Tattersalls Stakes (Group 3) then running well (one place behind Gstaad) in the Dewhurst; yard has landed this prize three times in the last four years; big player.
Proved rock-solid as a 2yo, readily winning the Coventry at Royal Ascot (6f) then posting form figures of 2221 at Group/Grade 1 level, including in the Dewhurst at Newmarket (7f) when doing well considering he was free to post and in the race; ended the campaign by overcoming a wide trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar (1m, firm; won with something to spare); supplemented (effectively re-added) into this at a cost of £30,000 having been removed in late March due to a clerical error; leading contender in his bid to end a 2,000 Guineas drought for Aidan O'Brien, who has landed this Classic a record ten times but not since 2019.
Showed useful form over 6.5f and 6f at Newbury (good/good to soft) last season, winning a maiden by sizeable margin then clear second in the Mill Reef (Group 2; hung left; collared near the finish); good prospect for Jim Boyle this term but doesn't appear to be crying out for 1m.
Son of Sea The Stars, whose stellar 3yo campaign included a success in the 2,000 Guineas; two from two, both outings over 1m on Kempton AW, last time looking value for more than the 1l winning margin in a conditions race that Notable Speech (from same yard) won in 2024 before following up in this contest; deserted by William Buick but the stable landed this Classic with the second string, ridden by James Doyle, in 2022; interesting contender who brings significant potential.
Campaigned mainly on AW, most recently 5l fourth (ran well but never dangerous) to King's Trail at Kempton on seasonal debut; bottom of this pack on the figures and trailed home last in the Royal Lodge on sole turf attempt; this outsider has plenty to prove and plenty to find.
Similar to Into The Sky in having raced at Newbury on both starts; did just enough to win 2yo maiden (6.5f, soft) then ran well, about 2l fourth to Alparslan, in the Greenham (7f, good); the way he shaped last time suggests additional improvement is plausible upped further in trip; by 2,000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder; more interesting than bare ratings suggest.
Very useful colt but possibly needs to dominate, having gained both wins from the front, latest when taking well to first-time cheekpieces and comfortably beating Avicenna by 2l in the Craven Stakes over C&D (good; Group 3) on seasonal debut; by no means certain to have his own way in this bigger field and he's held by a couple of today's opponents on Dewhurst running; otherwise may have more to offer in the retained headgear.
Unraced at two; AW form this year comprises a win at Southwell (7f) and neck second, doing well having come from difficult position, at Newcastle (1m Listed); promising colt for first-season trainer Charlie Pike but faces a much stiffer task on turf debut; supplemented at a cost of £30,000.
Juvenile campaign over sprint distances culminated in Group 1 win at the Curragh (good); held by Gstaad on Coventry running; respectable second to Thesecretadversary, who received 3lb, in 7f Group 3 at Leopardstown on reappearance but doesn't give the strong impression he'll benefit from going up further in trip; indeed, he seems more of a 6f Commonwealth Cup type.
Irish colt who has built up a solid record that includes a good effort in Canadian Grade 1 on final 2yo start (sole 1m attempt); won going away from Power Blue, who conceded 3lb, in Group 3 at Leopardstown (7f, good to yielding) on reappearance; could go well but several others bring stronger claims in terms of class and/or potential.
Has finished behind some of today's rivals on two occasions, latest in the Craven when admittedly running well on bare figures; gained sole success (from five attempts) at novice level and looks well short of the required standard in this field; first-time headgear needs to make a difference.
Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.