Hamilton · 3:53

Aspire Cleaning & Facilities Throughout Scotland Handicap

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip1m½f

GoingGood

Field8 runners

ClassClass 5

Race detail

Arkenstaar rates as the value NAP at 25.1% fair chance versus 18.2% market probability (+22.8% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

2:05 2:40 3:15 3:53 4:25 5:00 5:35

Slims Favourite 68%

Hamilton · 3:53

Arkenstaar

13/2

+22.8% EV +6.9% Edge Model 25.1% vs Market 18.2%

Slims Outsider 68%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +22.8% EV

Arkenstaar

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Current price still underrates the chance
Today’s trip looks ideal

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 64% complete.

Race Insight

Arkenstaar

Model vs Market 25.1% vs 18.2%

Expected Value +22.8%

Confidence 68%

Data Completeness 64%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Current price still underrates the chance
Today’s trip looks ideal

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Arkenstaar rates as the value NAP at 25.1% fair chance versus 18.2% market probability (+22.8% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Native Instinct

Callum Rodriguez Edward Bethell

26056- Draw 8 OR 74 RPR 0 TS 0 +-12.0% EV +-0.2% Edge Data 64%

Novice winner on soft and has gone close in a 7f handicap on good to soft; well beaten upped to 1m at Leicester on final run in October but that was too bad to be true; has dipped to a dangerous mark and, at this trip, may have improvement lurking.

2/1F

14.1 score

2nd

Izzari

Andrew Mullen Iain Jardine

0146-4 Draw 4 OR 73 RPR 0 TS 0 +-23.1% EV +-3.0% Edge Data 64%

Three-time winner who was quite eyecatching after a break at Newcastle (1m) and the winner has been going places; fine on the grass and considered.

100/30

14.1 score

8th

Polygram

Oisin Orr Tristan Davidson

235-77 Draw 7 OR 73 RPR 0 TS 0 +-37.8% EV +-2.8% Edge Data 82%

Went close more than once for Harry Charlton but left that yard an eight-race maiden and comfortably held in 7f/1m1f handicaps for current one; the return of cheekpieces might not be a bad thing (figures of 23 when tried previously) but there are safer options.

11/1

11.1 score

6th

Arkenstaar Slims Favourite

Connor Beasley Michael Dods

12114- Draw 2 OR 72 RPR 0 TS 0 +22.8% EV +6.9% Edge Data 64%

One of his seven wins here came in this race two seasons ago; had the benefit of a run that year and record after this sort of break isn't overly encouraging; however, his course record is too good to ignore, he's on a competitive mark and goes on all ground.

13/2

15.1 score

3rd

Native Honey

Paul Mulrennan Jim Goldie

6714-0 Draw 3 OR 70 RPR 0 TS 0 +-18.6% EV +-0.6% Edge Data 73%

Had some high points last season on which he's realistically treated but his return last week at Musselburgh was underwhelming.

6/1

11.2 score

7th

Quiet Resolve

Sean Kirrane Alan Brown

65636- Draw 5 OR 68 RPR 0 TS 0 +28.5% EV +1.7% Edge Data 64%

AW winner; placed in the Legends race at Doncaster (1m, good to soft) in September but never involved next time at Ayr, which made it 0-12 on grass; has since left Richard Fahey.

20/1

10.7 score

1st

Sanafi Zabeel

Lauren Young(5) Jim Goldie

321- Draw 1 OR 64 RPR 0 TS 0 +11.8% EV +2.4% Edge Data 64%

Progressive profile in a light German career, the win coming over 1m1f on good ground; bought for 20,000gns; not the easiest to weigh up and best to let the market guide.

14/1

12.7 score

5th

Starliner

William Pyle Linda Perratt

345505 Draw 6 OR 62 RPR 0 TS 0 +-46.1% EV +-4.4% Edge Data 64%

Strike-rate of 3-42 and he's stuck on a lengthy losing run; reduced mark is warranted.

13/2

11.2 score

4th

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