Hamilton · 5:00

Hampton By Hilton Hotel Hamilton Park Handicap

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip5f

GoingGood

Field13 runners

ClassClass 6

Race detail

Mount Ruapehu rates as the value NAP at 29.4% fair chance versus 17.7% market probability (+32.3% EV).

2:05 2:40 3:15 3:53 4:25 5:00 5:35

Slims Favourite 90%

Hamilton · 5:00

Mount Ruapehu

4/1

+32.3% EV +11.7% Edge Model 29.4% vs Market 17.7%

Slims Outsider 90%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +32.3% EV

Mount Ruapehu

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

The market still matters, but the aim is to find where price and reality have drifted apart.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 64% complete.

Race Insight

Mount Ruapehu

Model vs Market 29.4% vs 17.7%

Expected Value +32.3%

Confidence 90%

Data Completeness 64%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Mount Ruapehu rates as the value NAP at 29.4% fair chance versus 17.7% market probability (+32.3% EV).

Full Runner List Back to board

Mount Ruapehu Slims Favourite

Andrew Mullen Iain Jardine

541131 Draw 4 OR 65 RPR 0 TS 0 +32.3% EV +11.7% Edge Data 73%

Has been on a roll at Southwell in recent weeks and didn't run badly in defeat at Wolverhampton; carries a penalty for the cosy win five days ago but a greater concern would be his record on grass, which reads 1-33.

7/2F

10.9 score

2nd

Midnight Lir

Connor Beasley Michael Dods

/8260- Draw 6 OR 64 RPR 0 TS 0 +1.6% EV +2.3% Edge Data 64%

Hasn't won since 2023 and he beat one home when last seen out in October; one to watch after a break of 213 days.

17/2

8.7 score

9th

Digital

James Sullivan Ruth Carr

512979 Draw 13 OR 64 RPR 0 TS 0 +-30.6% EV +-0.8% Edge Data 73%

Won three 5f AW handicaps through the winter but his last three efforts were nothing to shout about; capable on turf but needs to turn a corner.

12/1

7.4 score

11th

Hi Lord

Barry McHugh Gary Harrison

678-05 Draw 1 OR 63 RPR 0 TS 0 +-78.7% EV +-7.8% Edge Data 82%

Lightly raced 4yo; won over 5f in 2024 but hard to recommend on exploits for current yard.

13/2

6.4 score

1st

Ganesha

Sam James Phillip Makin

2-7905 Draw 10 OR 60 RPR 0 TS 0 +-45.9% EV +-3.2% Edge Data 73%

Four wins divided between turf and the AW; some sign of returning to form from off the pace at Newcastle 20 days ago (5f); possible.

7/1

7.8 score

6th

Until Dawn

Rhys Elliott(5) Alan Brown

5958-7 Draw 11 OR 60 RPR 0 TS 0 +-52.6% EV +-1.7% Edge Data 73%

Both wins came on the AW in early 2025; her more recent efforts on either side of a wind operation have been thoroughly underwhelming.

18/1

6.2 score

3rd

Thunderstorm Katie

Paul Mulrennan Jim Goldie

1168-9 Draw 12 OR 60 RPR 0 TS 0 +23.2% EV +3.4% Edge Data 55%

Back-to-back wins over 5f in October; lost her way in final three races but could be better for a break and has won here.

12/1

8.4 score

7th

King Of The Jungle

Lewis Chalkley(7) Michael & David Easterby

43625- Draw 7 OR 55 RPR 0 TS 0 +26.5% EV +2.8% Edge Data 64%

Went winless last season but ran well on occasions and he's handicapped to go in at some point; seems to run well fresh.

16/1

8.0 score

10th

Opal Storm

Faye McManoman Brian Rothwell

07-915 Draw 8 OR 55 RPR 0 TS 0 +-26.3% EV +-0.6% Edge Data 73%

Arrived late to win at Southwell (5f) and only faded late on at Doncaster last week (good to firm); remains in form and she is proven on a stiff 5f.

17/2

8.0 score

12th

Sir Benedict

Joanna Mason Ben Haslam

648625 Draw 5 OR 48 RPR 0 TS 0 +-74.1% EV +-9.8% Edge Data 82%

Seven-time winner with bucketloads of placed efforts to his name; both runs for this yard have been respectable and the return of cheekpieces is a definite plus.

9/2

7.2 score

4th

Colour Code

Mark Winn Linda Perratt

410-6R Draw 9 OR 48 RPR 73 TS 57 +492.5% EV +4.7% Edge Data 64%

Only 1-20; often misses the break and didn't even consent to race last time; too risky.

109/1

7.4 score

Doon The Glen

Lauren Young(5) Jim Goldie

1-0820 Draw 3 OR 47 RPR 0 TS 0 +-62.3% EV +-3.5% Edge Data 73%

The Newcastle win in March 2025 is his only victory in 29 starts; just one effort of note this year and that was in a classified race.

11/1

6.5 score

5th

Sixcor

Ethan Tindall(5) Linda Perratt

29058- Draw 2 OR 45 RPR 0 TS 0 +87.1% EV +2.6% Edge Data 64%

Ended the last turf campaign with some lesser efforts; others bring more pressing claims.

40/1

7.1 score

8th

Need The Rest Of The Board?

Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.

Back To Today’s Picks Membership