Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.
Lilt rates as the value NAP at 29.4% fair chance versus 25.4% market probability (+10.1% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Lilt rates as the value NAP at 29.4% fair chance versus 25.4% market probability (+10.1% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Lope De Vega half-sister to winners Doom (7f/1m including Listed; RPR 104) and Kilt (1m; 97); dam a well-related 1m-1m2f winner (including US Grade 1; 116); 7-2 for a six-runner maiden at Doncaster (7f, soft) in October, dictating a steady pace and battling on well to win by a neck; that's just fair form but this 1m Coronation Stakes and 1m4f Irish Oaks entry looks the type to do a lot better as 3yo.
Made all in one 1m novice as a 2yo and very nearly did so in another; 11-1 fourth of ten in Listed race here (1m, good to soft; Sacred Ground was second) on final start illustrated some limitations, sticking to her task well as if this longer trip would suit but, despite the Oaks entry, she probably has serious work to do in this company too.
All three starts as 2yo were on soft; green in front in 7f novice win at Sandown against a notable rival; about 2l fourth of eight when an outsider for 1m Group 1 Marcel Boussac at Longchamp, keeping on well while never able to threaten seriously the lead; fair chance she'll stay 1m2f, judged on that, even if pedigree (sire sprinter) casts doubts on her Oaks entry; clear top on form.
Made all in a maiden at Wetherby (7f, good to firm) on second start and almost all in Listed race at Sandown (7f, good) later last summer; her season ended, however, with last of seven in Group 3 at Goodwood (7f, good to firm) in August; good chance she will stay 1m2f; needs to resume progress.
2,900,000gns yearling by Camelot; first foal of Group-placed 7f 2yo winner (RPR 102), herself a half-sister to multiple Group 1 winner Luxembourg; 8-1 in steadily run novice at Yarmouth (1m2f, good) three weeks ago, short of room for a sustained period before running on into second of seven; Irish Oaks entry who is bottom on ratings but probably capable of a lot better.
By Kingman out of Oaks winner Anapurna; favourite for both starts as 2yo, overcoming greenness to win a five-runner novice at Yarmouth (1m, good to firm) and every chance through the final 3f when second of ten in Listed race at Newmarket (1m, good to soft); Oaks entry from a stable which has a fine record in this race and houses the current Oaks favourite, so market strength would probably be telling.
Won debut as 2yo but twice came up short in Group events; resumed with a late charge to grab a conditions stakes at Kempton (1m, AW) in March but the Group 3 Fred Darling at Newbury (7f, good; 22-1, made most) proved too tough and, despite a new trip, the same is likely to be the case today.
Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.