Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.
Jaan Ki Tukri rates as the value NAP at 23.3% fair chance versus 19% market probability (+16.7% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Jaan Ki Tukri rates as the value NAP at 23.3% fair chance versus 19% market probability (+16.7% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
February foal by Mehmas; £72,000 yearling, 150,000gns breeze-up 2yo; first foal of a once-raced 7f 2yo winner (RPR 89); trainer off the mark with 2yos this year; William Buick booked; market confidence would look significant.
March foal by Blue Point; 140,000euros foal, 130,000euros yearling; sixth foal; closely related to Italian 7.5f-1m2f winner Conquering Eagle, half-brother to winners Apricot Ice (6f; RPR 95), Saraqael (1m; 93) and Seasony (7f/1m including 2yo/AW/Czechia; 79); dam Group-placed 1m winner (100); enough paper appeal to warrant a second look.
Promise amid inexperience when third of nine in a 5f maiden (good ground) at Newbury 16 days ago, racing freely early on and paying the price in the closing stages; finished a neck in front of Napa on that occasion and can confirm the placings.
Sent off favourite for his Newbury debut 16 days ago (5f, good) and ran creditably, not helped by being a bit tight for room inside the final furlong; finished a neck behind Jaan Ki Tukri on that occasion and he is no banker to reverse the placings.
Always on the back foot on his Wolverhampton debut 12 days ago (5f) and although he ran on for second, he was no threat to the easy winner; should have learned from that initial experience but connections look to hold stronger claims with Napa.
April foal; 100,000gns yearling by Persian Force; eighth foal; closely related to 6f 2yo winner Beauty Inspire (including Group 3; RPR 102), half-brother to winners Darwell Lion (7f-8.6f including 2yo/AW; 97) and Camera Shy (6f/7f including 2yo/AW; 78); dam French 1m4f winner, out of 5f/6f winner; represents a powerful yard; shortlisted.
May 28 foal by Blackbeard; third foal of a smart 6f/7f winner (including Group 3; RPR 106), herself from an excellent family; should have a future but comfortably the youngest of these and he will need to be useful to make a winning start.
Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.