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Bath · 3:25

Pins And Putts Handicap

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip5f
GoingGood
Field6 runners
ClassClass 5
Race completed. Slims Favourite: Aces Wild · 6th
Race detail

Aces Wild rates as the value NAP at 37.3% fair chance versus 23.7% market probability (+49.2% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal.

1:45 2:15 2:50 3:25 4:00 4:35 5:10
Slims Favourite 78%
Bath · 3:25

Aces Wild

4/1
+49.2% EV +13.6% Edge Model 37.3% vs Market 23.7%
Slims Outsider 78%
No pick published yet.
Value Thesis +49.2% EV

Aces Wild

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

  • Recent form profile is a major positive
  • Ratings stack up strongly against this field
  • Current price still underrates the chance
  • Recent run was better than the finishing position
Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal.

  • Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
  • Available race evidence is 82% complete.
Race Insight
Aces Wild
Model vs Market 37.3% vs 23.7%
Expected Value +49.2%
Confidence 78%
Data Completeness 82%
  • Recent form profile is a major positive
  • Ratings stack up strongly against this field
  • Current price still underrates the chance
  • Recent run was better than the finishing position
Favourite Vulnerability
Market Pressure
Market Efficiency 0%
Outsider Triggers N/A
Race State Playable
Outsider EV N/A

Aces Wild rates as the value NAP at 37.3% fair chance versus 23.7% market probability (+49.2% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests; trip is not ideal.

Full Runner List Back to board
Tees Aggregates
Jack Nicholls(5) Adrian Nicholls
017-59 Draw 4 OR 73 RPR 0 TS 0 +-2.1% EV +0.4% Edge Data 73%

Can front-run, as when running away with a Beverley handicap last summer off 6lb lower (5f, good to firm); promising reappearance at Southwell last month but he failed to build on it at Beverley 11 days ago; could bounce back.

6/1
16.2 score
4th
Toolatetonegotiate
Millie Wonnacott(3) Daisy Hitchins
513343 Draw 6 OR 73 RPR 0 TS 0 +-40.9% EV +-14.2% Edge Data 91%

She has made steady progress throughout her career, winning three times on AW, and she was unlucky not to register a first turf success when a close third over C&D last week; saw no daylight at a crucial stage on that occasion and the form has already been franked; good chance.

6/4F
18.9 score
2nd
Aces Wild Slims Favourite
Taryn Langley(3) Adrian Wintle
2127-3 Draw 5 OR 72 RPR 0 TS 0 +49.2% EV +13.6% Edge Data 82%

5f win at Chester (good) last summer came off a 4lb lower mark; encouraging return to action here (5.7f, good) 17 days ago and should go well if building on that first run for 199 days.

18/5
21.0 score
6th
Smooth Silesie
Harry Davies Lisa Williamson
71-687 Draw 1 OR 72 RPR 0 TS 0 +5.4% EV +0.8% Edge Data 73%

C&D winner; had a good time of things in 2025, winning four times; she has finished last in her three AW runs this year and has only dropped 3lb; may need some more help from the handicapper.

14/1
14.5 score
5th
Over Spiced
Ashley Lewis(5) Grace Harris
624-52 Draw 2 OR 67 RPR 0 TS 0 +6.4% EV +1.7% Edge Data 73%

Three 5f wins for Grace Harris last season; she made a promising return to action at Nottingham last month and backed it up with a good second at Salisbury yesterday; should go well again if turned out quickly.

3/1
17.3 score
1st
Diomed Spirit
Kieran O'Neill Stuart Williams
-35566 Draw 3 OR 57 RPR 0 TS 0 +-42.8% EV +-2.2% Edge Data 73%

Big chance on his AW form but he has finished out of the placings in all nine turf runs; BHA mark is 15lb lower on turf but he's likely to remain vulnerable.

18/1
12.1 score
3rd

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