Bath · 4:35

Lee's 60th - Still Horsing Around Handicap (Bath Summer Stayers' Series Qualifier)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip1m3½f

GoingGood

Field9 runners

ClassClass 6

Race detail

Beaune rates as the value NAP at 45.9% fair chance versus 17.9% market probability (+157.2% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

1:45 2:15 2:50 3:25 4:00 4:35 5:10

Slims Favourite 90%

Bath · 4:35

Beaune

9/2

+157.2% EV +28.0% Edge Model 45.9% vs Market 17.9%

Slims Outsider 90%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +157.2% EV

Beaune

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 76% complete.

Race Insight

Beaune

Model vs Market 45.9% vs 17.9%

Expected Value +157.2%

Confidence 90%

Data Completeness 76%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Beaune rates as the value NAP at 45.9% fair chance versus 17.9% market probability (+157.2% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Full Runner List Back to board

Beaune Slims Favourite

Callum Hutchinson Bernard Llewellyn

-12211 Draw 3 OR 60 RPR 0 TS 0 +157.2% EV +28.0% Edge Data 73%

0-9 on turf but returns to this surface after posting form figures of 12211 over 1m4f on the AW; his mark has suffered as a result but he still appeals more than most.

4/1

16.7 score

8th

Mrembo

Olivia Tubb(5) Jonathan Portman

3063-5 Draw 7 OR 59 RPR 0 TS 0 +-47.4% EV +-12.2% Edge Data 73%

Five-time winner over 1m2f-11.7f on turf; beaten under 2l after a break at Kempton and might have gone close with more luck.

7/2

12.6 score

3rd

Bohemian Breeze

Rhys Clutterbuck Gary & Josh Moore

4-7044 Draw 5 OR 59 RPR 0 TS 0 +-70.1% EV +-12.8% Edge Data 82%

Backed up a good run on the AW with a fourth here last week when just behind Knightmare; a tongue-tie returns along with new blinkers; thereabouts.

16/5F

10.2 score

9th

Two Plus Two

Darragh Keenan Ed de Giles

20117- Draw 1 OR 58 RPR 0 TS 0 +32.4% EV +1.7% Edge Data 64%

Better than ever returned to turf last May when winning on fast ground at Salisbury and here; on a realistic mark for this belated return to action.

14/1

10.8 score

4th

Maywedance

William Carson John O'Shea

-45740 Draw 6 OR 55 RPR 0 TS 0 +34.5% EV +1.1% Edge Data 73%

Record of 1-19 and she's on her fourth trainer; recent AW efforts were uninspiring.

22/1

9.8 score

7th

Buck Barrow

Taryn Langley(3) Adrian Wintle

2306-0 Draw 2 OR 54 RPR 0 TS 0 +-10.2% EV +-0.5% Edge Data 73%

Ffos Las winner over 1m2f (good to soft) last summer; just one effort of any real note since.

14/1

9.8 score

6th

Bobby Dassler

Christian Howarth Barry John Murphy

041-07 Draw 4 OR 53 RPR 0 TS 0 +36.7% EV +0.6% Edge Data 82%

Often goes well here but not in his last two races (1m/1m2f) and he's 2-41 overall.

80/1

8.2 score

2nd

Knightmare

Pat Cosgrave David Evans

274053 Draw 9 OR 52 RPR 0 TS 0 +-4.9% EV +-0.7% Edge Data 82%

Still a maiden and started out as a sprinter, but seemed to see out this trip fine here last week when third; clear chance.

4/1

12.6 score

5th

Virtual Hug

Kieran O'Neill Nikki Evans

4-5164 Draw 8 OR 50 RPR 0 TS 0 +-59.5% EV +-5.2% Edge Data 73%

Multiple AW winner who has won over hurdles but is 0-18 on turf on the Flat; won at Wolverhampton in March (1m4f) but he's not easy to predict.

13/2

9.3 score

1st

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