Warwick · 4:25

M&T Solicitors In Warwick Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip2m4f

GoingGood

Field8 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

Harel Du Marais rates as the value NAP at 32.6% fair chance versus 10.2% market probability (+160.6% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

2:40 3:15 3:50 4:25 5:00 5:35

Slims Favourite 83%

Warwick · 4:25

Harel Du Marais

18/1

+160.6% EV +22.4% Edge Model 32.6% vs Market 10.2%

Slims Outsider 83%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +160.6% EV

Harel Du Marais

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 76% complete.

Race Insight

Harel Du Marais

Model vs Market 32.6% vs 10.2%

Expected Value +160.6%

Confidence 83%

Data Completeness 76%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Harel Du Marais rates as the value NAP at 32.6% fair chance versus 10.2% market probability (+160.6% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

Full Runner List Back to board

Start Again

Jack Hogan Fergal O'Brien

3713-P Draw 0 OR 110 +-65.0% EV +-4.3% Edge Data 82%

Exeter maiden hurdle winner in October; only made his chase/handicap debut on Saturday and was pulled up at Uttoxeter (16-1).

8.8 score

Imperial Bede

Harry Cobden Jonjo & A J O'Neill

/4152- Draw 0 OR 112 RPR 0 TS 0 +-30.0% EV +-3.3% Edge Data 82%

Cheekpieces fitted in last three races; won at Catterick and back to form when a clear second at Haydock (2m4f, good); back up 3lb but still well handicapped on old exploits.

9/4F

13.4 score

5th

Salley Gardens

Philip Armson(3) Jake Thomas Coulson

75435- Draw 0 OR 110 RPR 0 TS 0 +5.5% EV +1.4% Edge Data 64%

Ex-Olly Murphy; yet to win for current yard and now back from another lengthy break; others preferred.

28/1

10.2 score

6th

Harel Du Marais Slims Favourite

Charlie Todd Charles & Adam Pogson

63313- Draw 0 OR 110 RPR 0 TS 0 +160.6% EV +22.4% Edge Data 82%

Landed his fourth win over fences at Stratford in March (2m1f, soft) but his Huntingdon third was remote and some inconsistency has crept in.

14/1

14.9 score

7th

Theonlywayiswessex

Tom Bellamy Alan King

7/234- Draw 0 OR 107 RPR 0 TS 0 +24.1% EV +3.8% Edge Data 64%

Below par when last seen in August but ran pretty well in his previous two races, including here; has plenty in his favour, other than a tough enough mark.

9/2

11.7 score

2nd

Another Folly

Ciaran Gethings Jane Williams

12444- Draw 0 OR 107 RPR 0 TS 0 +-52.7% EV +-4.3% Edge Data 73%

2m6f winner at Stratford last October; another good run to be fourth at Ludlow in January (2m4f) but bit below that level since, last time sent to France.

7/2

10.1 score

4th

Diligent Militia

David Noonan Tim Vaughan

/5P44- Draw 0 OR 107 RPR 0 TS 0 +-76.4% EV +-7.3% Edge Data 73%

Point winner; didn't hang about over hurdles and was running well when clouting two out on handicap/chase debut at Chepstow, where he was made favourite in this new headgear combination; has to be of interest.

22/1

8.6 score

Dj Pete

James Best Sarah-Jayne Davies

4151P- Draw 0 OR 101 RPR 0 TS 0 +9.9% EV +2.6% Edge Data 73%

Has won twice since February but he's very hit and miss, and might be better over shorter.

10/1

11.4 score

3rd

Full Force Gale

Charlie Deutsch Tom George

P/602- Draw 0 OR 97 RPR 0 TS 0 +-65.8% EV +-11.0% Edge Data 91%

Lightly raced; first run in this headgear combination when runner-up over C&D and late mistake didn't help; up 2lb but should run well.

7/2

10.8 score

1st

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