Warwick · 5:00

Moore & Tibbits Handicap Hurdle

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip2m

GoingGood

Field8 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

Wild Goose rates as the value NAP at 45.2% fair chance versus 35.6% market probability (+29.1% EV). Continuance also shows a positive long-price edge.

2:40 3:15 3:50 4:25 5:00 5:35

Slims Favourite 90%

Warwick · 5:00

Wild Goose

7/4

+29.1% EV +9.5% Edge Model 45.2% vs Market 35.6%

Slims Outsider 90%

Warwick · 5:00

Continuance

13/1

+159.5% EV +11.3% Edge Model 18.5% vs Market 7.3%

Value Thesis +29.1% EV

Wild Goose

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

The market still matters, but the aim is to find where price and reality have drifted apart.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Continuance carries 3 upside triggers.
Available race evidence is 76% complete.

Race Insight

Wild Goose

Model vs Market 45.2% vs 35.6%

Expected Value +29.1%

Confidence 90%

Data Completeness 76%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers 3

Race State Playable

Outsider EV +159.5%

Wild Goose rates as the value NAP at 45.2% fair chance versus 35.6% market probability (+29.1% EV). Continuance also shows a positive long-price edge.

Full Runner List Back to board

Wild Goose Slims Favourite

Aamilah Aswat(10) Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls

51421- Draw 0 OR 122 RPR 0 TS 0 +29.1% EV +9.5% Edge Data 82%

The winner of two handicaps, the latest at Hereford (2m, good) very decisively despite being headstrong initially; Aamilah Aswat rides again off a 7lb higher mark; respected.

6/4F

18.0 score

5th

Continuance Slims Outsider

James Best Martin Keighley

/P223- Draw 0 OR 122 RPR 0 TS 0 +159.5% EV +11.3% Edge Data 64%

Three-time winner over hurdles and nothing wrong with his most recent efforts in handicaps at top tracks; every chance provided he's straight enough after a lengthy break.

9/1

14.7 score

4th

Turn And Finish

Paul O'Brien Steph Hollinshead

/0626- Draw 0 OR 115 RPR 0 TS 0 +302.7% EV +5.5% Edge Data 64%

Became disappointing over hurdles for Harry Derham last year and was down the field when returning in 1m4f AW handicap for new stable in March; opposable.

28/1

11.9 score

8th

Wondering Why

Ben Jones Ben Pauling

/3216- Draw 0 OR 115 RPR 0 TS 0 +-52.3% EV +-12.0% Edge Data 82%

Comfortably beat a big field in a Lingfield maiden (2m, soft) and following run here was too bad to be true; consistent prior to that and should be up to winning races off this sort of mark.

7/2

12.9 score

1st

Jaminska

Ciaran Gethings Jane Williams

13376- Draw 0 OR 113 RPR 0 TS 0 +-43.8% EV +-3.0% Edge Data 82%

Big player on her form during the first half of last season but neither run this year was anywhere near that level; reservations for now.

12/1

10.2 score

6th

Gentleman Joe

Harry Cobden Matt Crawley

28/4P- Draw 0 OR 113 RPR 0 TS 0 +11.3% EV +0.4% Edge Data 82%

Flat/hurdle winner in Ireland; first run over jumps since 2023 when an encouraging fourth at Newbury and can be forgiven his no-show in the Sussex Champion Hurdle; possibilities.

16/1

10.8 score

7th

Nap Hand

Tom Cannon Alan King

22438- Draw 0 OR 112 RPR 0 TS 0 +-59.8% EV +-10.3% Edge Data 82%

Flat/hurdle winner; back from a break with pleasing runs under both codes before struggling in the Sussex Champion Hurdle; this is easier than that assignment.

4/1

11.7 score

2nd

Seraphic

Isabelle Ryder(5) David Killahena & Graeme McPherson

02/44- Draw 0 OR 94 RPR 0 TS 0 +-28.4% EV +-1.3% Edge Data 73%

Won twice on the Flat this year and was competitive over hurdles during the opening half of last year; belatedly tries a hood this afternoon; considered with so little weight to carry.

16/1

9.8 score

3rd

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