Chester · 1:30

CAA Stellar Lily Agnes EBF Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip5f

GoingGood

Field7 runners

ClassClass 2

Race detail

Hickory Lad rates as the value NAP at 21.5% fair chance versus 15.3% market probability (+33.4% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

1:30 2:05 2:35 3:05 3:40 4:10 4:45

Slims Favourite 68%

Chester · 1:30

Hickory Lad

11/4

+33.4% EV +6.2% Edge Model 21.5% vs Market 15.3%

Slims Outsider 68%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +33.4% EV

Hickory Lad

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Ground conditions suit the selection
Current price still underrates the chance

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 82% complete.

Race Insight

Hickory Lad

Model vs Market 21.5% vs 15.3%

Expected Value +33.4%

Confidence 68%

Data Completeness 82%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Ground conditions suit the selection
Current price still underrates the chance

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Hickory Lad rates as the value NAP at 21.5% fair chance versus 15.3% market probability (+33.4% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Fern Clyde

Tim Easterby

6 Draw 8 RPR 67 TS 47 +31.3% EV +0.5% Edge Data 64%

Seemed to need the outing/experience at Beverley (5f, good to soft) where she finished sixth; however, needs a big step forward in terms of form and has the worst of the draw.

8.5 score

Adonius

Kaiya Fraser Rebecca Menzies

11 Draw 1 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-19.8% EV +-3.1% Edge Data 73%

Two from two, namely wins at Musselburgh (5f, soft/good to soft) by 7l then a neck; made all and always doing enough under a penalty last time; big player from the inside gate.

100/30

14.5 score

1st

Final Appeal

Clifford Lee K R Burke

21 Draw 4 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-18.2% EV +-3.3% Edge Data 82%

Already proven on a turning, left-handed track having recorded a comfortable win from the front at Wolverhampton (5f, AW) to build on his Nottingham effort; looks a very suitable type.

5/1

15.2 score

5th

Hickory Lad Slims Favourite

Rowan Scott Phillip Makin

21 Draw 5 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +33.4% EV +6.2% Edge Data 82%

Made all to beat two rivals at Musselburgh (5f, good) last week, going one better than he did at Thirsk; faces competition for the lead to his inside but is otherwise one of the main form contenders.

11/4

15.3 score

2nd

Wait Geordie

Oisin Murphy Hugo Palmer

1 Draw 3 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-18.0% EV +-4.2% Edge Data 82%

Notable contender, being a once-raced novice winner who represents a local yard that targets Chester; made all at Bath (5f, good) and should be handy from his low draw; commands respect.

7/5F

16.1 score

3rd

Black Treasure

Sam James Ollie Sangster

Draw 6 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +180.5% EV +3.9% Edge Data 46%

30,000euros yearling; by Blackbeard; related to a few 2yo scorers (7f/1m) but inexperience may count against her, being the sole newcomer in the field; check the betting for further guidance.

50/1

11.4 score

7th

Cailin Aine

David Allan Tim Easterby

3 Draw 7 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +113.5% EV +2.8% Edge Data 73%

Showed ability with third-place finish at Redcar (5f, good to firm) but recorded only an ordinary RPR; drawn wider than the main form contenders and faces a difficult task.

50/1

11.0 score

4th

Yahaira

Kieran Shoemark Tom Dascombe

Draw 2 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-69.6% EV +-2.7% Edge Data 73%

Brings the worst form, having posted a duck egg at Bath (5f, good); perhaps needed the run but this looks a stiff assignment.

40/1

8.0 score

6th

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