Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.
Water To Wine rates as the value NAP at 36.8% fair chance versus 25.9% market probability (+6.6% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Water To Wine rates as the value NAP at 36.8% fair chance versus 25.9% market probability (+6.6% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Second 2yo start was better than debut and he reappeared with a front-running win when 4-6 in a four-runner maiden at Wolverhampton (9.4f, AW) six weeks ago; edged right off the final turn last time and was asked serious questions, with nothing special about the form, but he was much the strongest in the final 1f, so 1m4f will surely help; tongue-tie is now added.
Kingman half-brother to winners Naga (1m/1m2f; RPR 91) and Inwi (French 1m1f); dam French 1m1f-1m4f scorer (including Group 2; 109), half-sister to Hong Kong 1m4f Group 1 winner; evens for eight-runner maiden at Newbury (1m3f, good) 18 days ago and asserted in highly promising fashion; this race is a vault up in class and he does not have the Derby entry, but an exciting prospect.
Made all in a maiden last July and most impressive in four-runner Group 2 at Leopardstown (1m, good to yielding) in September; made favourite for the Derby on the back of that, and still has that position despite his third of five behind two stablemates when warm favourite for Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster (1m) in October, which was on heavy ground; sister Giselle won last year's Lingfield Oaks Trial (Oaks fifth); their trainer is the first one to turn to for winners of these Chester Derby and Oaks trials; hard to beat.
Derby entry; progressive as 2yo (hooded three times) while always finding one or two too good for him, in the last instance when third behind two Aidan O'Brien-trained colts in Group 3 at Newmarket (1m2f, good to firm); it's unlikely he had to reproduce that form when seeing off a newcomer by half a length in novice at Yarmouth (1m2f, good) on reappearance, at 4-7; not the most exciting on that evidence but likely to relish this extra distance.
Beaten a neck on first two runs before his front-running and rallying fifth of eight in Group 3 at Newmarket (1m2f, good to firm; sole run in cheekpieces) in October, just over 2l behind third-placed Del Maro; clear before halfway when 11-10 for a four-runner novice at Redcar (1m2f, good to firm) 16 days ago but had to battle for a short-head win; while he still looks a work in progress and 1m4f+ is likely to suit, he'd be a surprise winner of this.
Irish Derby entry whose dam is sister to Yorkshire Oaks and Vermeille winner Warm Heart; hung markedly right on his last two starts as a 2yo when 50-1 second at the Curragh (good) to subsequent Group 1 Futurity winner Hawk Mountain and going one better in another 1m maiden at Gowran (heavy); made a satisfactory return when second of four in a conditions event at Cork (10.5f, good) 12 days ago; can build on that but he needs to does so in a major way.
Has big-race entries; Frankel close relation to multiple Group 1-winning fillies Magical (up to 1m4f) and Rhododendron (up to 1m2f); well held on debut but second favourite for a maiden at Galway (7f, soft to heavy) later in October and eventually got the better of an odds-on stablemate who's not been seen since; cheekpieces go on and he's presumably the stable second string, but surely set for big improvement over middle distances this term.
Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.