Kelso · 4:32

Bedmax Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip2m1f

GoingGood

Field7 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

Singapore Trip rates as the value NAP at 29.9% fair chance versus 18.5% market probability (+46.3% EV). Glory And Honour also shows a positive long-price edge. Price is shorter than the model makes it.

1:55 2:25 2:55 3:25 4:00 4:32 5:02 5:32

Slims Favourite 71%

Kelso · 4:32

Singapore Trip

4/1

+46.3% EV +11.4% Edge Model 29.9% vs Market 18.5%

Slims Outsider 71%

Kelso · 4:32

Glory And Honour

11/1

+75.0% EV +9.8% Edge Model 20.3% vs Market 10.5%

Value Thesis +46.3% EV

Singapore Trip

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance
Ground conditions suit the selection

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Glory And Honour carries 3 upside triggers.
Available race evidence is 76% complete.

Race Insight

Singapore Trip

Model vs Market 29.9% vs 18.5%

Expected Value +46.3%

Confidence 71%

Data Completeness 76%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance
Ground conditions suit the selection

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers 3

Race State Playable

Outsider EV +75.0%

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Glory And Honour Slims Outsider

Jonathan England Sam England

45532- Draw 0 OR 116 RPR 0 TS 0 +74.9% EV +9.8% Edge Data 64%

Has won four chases, the latest off 1lb lower at Hexham last June (1m7f, good); good second following a break at Newcastle last time (2m4f, good); should go well again.

11/1

16.1 score

7th

Chapel Green

Alan Doyle Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore

1P57P- Draw 0 OR 110 RPR 0 TS 0 +-40.0% EV +-2.4% Edge Data 73%

Won over 2m5f here following a 163-day break last September (good) but rather disappointing since; on a good mark now, but a bit to prove.

5/1

11.5 score

3rd

Moodofthemoment

Ellis Collier(5) David Thompson

34P1P- Draw 0 OR 110 RPR 0 TS 0 +23.3% EV +3.3% Edge Data 55%

Won a five-runner handicap at Newcastle in October (2m4f, good) but had been pulled up on previous start and was pulled up on only start since (good to soft); this ground should suit better but he's not easy to work out.

28/1

14.4 score

6th

Singapore Trip Slims Favourite

Alice Stevens(3) Micky Hammond

73411- Draw 0 OR 106 RPR 0 TS 0 +46.3% EV +11.4% Edge Data 82%

On a hat-trick having won for today's rider at Wetherby in March (1m7f, good) and at Market Rasen in April (2m3f, good); has gone up 10lb, but these conditions suit and he could go well again.

3/1

17.6 score

1st

Tanking Along

Charlie Maggs(3) Patrick Neville

14163- Draw 0 OR 105 RPR 0 TS 0 +-9.6% EV +0.0% Edge Data 82%

Two wins at Sedgefield last season, the second a 2m1f handicap chase (good); went up 6lb for that and was put up another 7lb for finishing 4l third from 8lb out of the handicap at Ayr last month (2m, soft); could go well despite that rise.

4/1

16.2 score

2nd

Flash Du Pistolet

Sean Quinlan Stuart Coltherd

52572- Draw 0 OR 102 RPR 0 TS 0 +-64.3% EV +-12.2% Edge Data 73%

Two wins over fences, one over C&D, in March 2025 (good/good to soft); ran one of his best races since when second at Hexham (1m7f, good) last time and should go well again.

9/4F

13.0 score

5th

Intenzo

Jamie Hamilton Mark Walford

34425- Draw 0 OR 100 RPR 0 TS 0 +-73.7% EV +-9.9% Edge Data 73%

Best run over fences when 3.25l second to Tanking Along (13lb worse off) at Sedgefield in March (2m, good); reportedly ran flat when well beaten at Southwell next time (2m4f, good); should fare better.

8/1

11.1 score

4th

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