Kelso · 5:02

Aidan & Margaret McDonnell's Golden Anniversary Open Hunters' Chase

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip2m7½f

GoingGood

Field7 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

Whatdeawant rates as the value NAP at 47.3% fair chance versus 38.8% market probability (+6.3% EV). Going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

1:55 2:25 2:55 3:25 4:00 4:32 5:02 5:32

Slims Favourite 90%

Kelso · 5:02

Whatdeawant

2/1

+6.4% EV +8.4% Edge Model 47.3% vs Market 38.8%

Slims Outsider 90%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +6.4% EV

Whatdeawant

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Current price still underrates the chance
Recent run was better than the finishing position

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 73% complete.

Race Insight

Whatdeawant

Model vs Market 47.3% vs 38.8%

Expected Value +6.4%

Confidence 90%

Data Completeness 73%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Current price still underrates the chance
Recent run was better than the finishing position

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Whatdeawant rates as the value NAP at 47.3% fair chance versus 38.8% market probability (+6.3% EV). Going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

Why the market may be wrong

Going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

Full Runner List Back to board

Brandy McQueen

Miss Lucy Brown(7) Miss Lucy Brown

/211P- Draw 0 OR 115 RPR 0 TS 0 +-55.0% EV +-6.5% Edge Data 82%

Won a similar event at Catterick in good style in March (3m1f, good) but pulled up at Hexham last time; needs to bounce back.

11/4

12.9 score

4th

Northern Bound

Mr Samuel Scott(7) Myles Osborne

1231P- Draw 0 OR 119 RPR 0 TS 0 +-39.8% EV +-3.4% Edge Data 82%

Won two 2m4f handicaps for Ben Pauling last year, the second a two-runner event at Warwick; bit to prove after being pulled up on hunter chase debut at Ludlow in March (2m4f, good), including stamina.

11/1

13.2 score

6th

Dressedtoimpress

Mr Nick Orpwood(3) Miss Joanne Murphy

4/1/P- Draw 0 OR 94 RPR 0 TS 0 +-23.5% EV +-0.3% Edge Data 82%

Lightly raced 10yo; won the Heart Of All England (maiden hunter chase) at Hexham last May (3m, good); pulled up over same C&D last month on only run since; bit to prove.

33/1

10.0 score

3rd

Eagles Rock

Mr John Dawson M Cregan

/3231- Draw 0 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-38.9% EV +-6.1% Edge Data 64%

Five-time point winner, latest at Overton last month (3m, good); creditable second in maiden hunter chase over C&D last April only previous rules run; interesting.

5/2

15.2 score

2nd

Whatdeawant Slims Favourite

Miss Lisa O'Connor(7) Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore

11312- Draw 0 OR 122 RPR 0 TS 0 +6.3% EV +8.4% Edge Data 73%

Ex-Willie Mullins; smart novice hurdler, third in the 2022 Ballymore at Cheltenham; has won four of his last five points (all for today's rider), and was runner-up at Hexham on hunter chase debut last time (3m, good; Settle Down Jill third, Brandy McQueen and Dressedtoimpress both pulled up); the one to beat.

15/8F

20.0 score

7th

Royal Cave

Miss Natasha Cookson(7) Tom Fife

61432- Draw 0 OR 95 RPR 0 TS 0 +187.2% EV +8.7% Edge Data 82%

Maiden point winner in March (3m, soft), but a 20-race maiden under rules; last of two finishers at Pusk on latest point start; stiffer task here.

40/1

14.8 score

5th

Settle Down Jill

Mr Paddy Barlow(3) Norman Sanderson

2P523- Draw 0 OR 103 RPR 0 TS 0 +-19.7% EV +-0.8% Edge Data 82%

Hurdle winner for Dan Skelton; placed on his last two runs in hunter chases, last time finishing third at Hexham (3m, good) where Whatdeawant was 18l in front of her in second; each-way chance.

10/1

13.9 score

1st

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