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Yarmouth · 2:12

Follow @attheraces On X Apprentice Handicap

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip7f
GoingGood
Field6 runners
ClassClass 5
Race completed. Slims Favourite: Me Tarzan · 1st
Race detail

Me Tarzan rates as the value NAP at 29.9% fair chance versus 15.5% market probability (+91.6% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

2:12 2:47 3:22 3:57 4:28 5:03 5:35
Slims Favourite 73%
Yarmouth · 2:12

Me Tarzan

11/2
+91.6% EV +14.4% Edge Model 29.9% vs Market 15.5%
Slims Outsider 73%
No pick published yet.
Value Thesis +91.6% EV

Me Tarzan

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

  • Recent form profile is a major positive
  • 14-day trainer form is strong
  • Current price still underrates the chance
  • Today’s trip looks ideal
Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

  • Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
  • Available race evidence is 73% complete.
Race Insight
Me Tarzan
Model vs Market 29.9% vs 15.5%
Expected Value +91.6%
Confidence 73%
Data Completeness 73%
  • Recent form profile is a major positive
  • 14-day trainer form is strong
  • Current price still underrates the chance
  • Today’s trip looks ideal
Favourite Vulnerability
Market Pressure
Market Efficiency 0%
Outsider Triggers N/A
Race State Playable
Outsider EV N/A

Me Tarzan rates as the value NAP at 29.9% fair chance versus 15.5% market probability (+91.6% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board
Mr Ubiquitous
Jack Callan(3) Harry Eustace
1579-1 Draw 3 OR 75 RPR 0 TS 0 +34.5% EV +8.0% Edge Data 73%

Strike-rate of 6-16 so he knows how to win and only 3lb higher than for his half-length reappearance success at Kempton (7f, AW); every chance.

100/30
20.7 score
5th
Noble Guest
Harry Burns(3) George Margarson
15156- Draw 6 OR 73 RPR 0 TS 0 +-54.7% EV +-7.3% Edge Data 64%

Had 15 races; second career win when prevailing narrowly over C&D in September and following efforts weren't too shoddy; still on a competitive mark but he does lack a recent run.

11/2
14.3 score
3rd
Me Tarzan Slims Favourite
Harry Vigors(7) Archie Watson
-64641 Draw 1 OR 72 RPR 0 TS 0 +91.6% EV +14.4% Edge Data 73%

Four wins divided between AW and turf; ideally positioned through the race when narrowly scoring at Kempton (7f) but this consistent 4yo has clear claims.

7/2
20.6 score
1st
Diamont Katie
Jack Nicholls(5) K R Burke
4-5851 Draw 5 OR 72 RPR 0 TS 0 +-34.3% EV +-13.9% Edge Data 73%

Back from a wind operation when winning comfortably last week at Pontefract (6f, good); carries a penalty but should be hard to beat if as good again, as returning to 7f won't hinder her at all.

5/4F
20.1 score
2nd
Dancing Terror
Jack Dace(5) Amanda Perrett
1/2-00 Draw 4 OR 68 RPR 0 TS 0 +1.9% EV +0.1% Edge Data 73%

First and second in two 7f novices at Lingfield the winter before last, but having been off for a year, he's trailed home last in 1m/7f handicaps (tried a hood and blinkers last time); makes turf debut with lots to prove.

40/1
11.5 score
6th
Way To Dubai
Mason Paetel(5) Michael Appleby
735380 Draw 2 OR 68 RPR 0 TS 0 +-26.0% EV +-1.3% Edge Data 82%

Has won only once since making his British debut in October 2023; has threatened plenty of times but has been very poor in last two races.

14/1
12.9 score
4th

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