Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.
Pershalla rates as the value NAP at 41.8% fair chance versus 26.4% market probability (+46.2% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Pershalla rates as the value NAP at 41.8% fair chance versus 26.4% market probability (+46.2% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.
Price is shorter than the model makes it.
1-14 for Charlie Johnston, the win coming off 7lb higher at Newmarket last summer (1m4f); that was in a new visor and he struggled afterwards, including in blinkers that are now reapplied; joined this yard for 1,000gns.
0-8 for Charlie Fellowes; four runs for current yard, the pick when a close fifth over 1m5f at Lingfield (AW) three runs back; pretty poor since and he's now had lots of chances over various distances.
Lightly raced for a 4yo; seemingly all the better for her comeback run, and the fitting of a hood, when finding the most to lead near the line at Kempton (1m4f, AW) 20 days ago; back up 4lb but in form and probably capable of better.
Not a lot to show for his runs on the Flat or over jumps for previous yard but he's back with Nick Littmoden for whom he did well in Flat handicaps last year; on a competitive mark.
Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.