Uttoxeter · 1:20

Support The Stoke City Foundation "National Hunt" Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div I)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip2m

GoingGood

Field7 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

Trigg rates as the value NAP at 38% fair chance versus 31.8% market probability (+16% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

12:45 1:20 1:55 2:35 3:10 3:50 4:20 4:50

Slims Favourite 90%

Uttoxeter · 1:20

Trigg

4/5

+16.0% EV +6.2% Edge Model 38.0% vs Market 31.8%

Slims Outsider 90%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +16.0% EV

Trigg

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Current price still underrates the chance
14-day trainer form is strong
Recent run was better than the finishing position

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 64% complete.

Race Insight

Trigg

Model vs Market 38.0% vs 31.8%

Expected Value +16.0%

Confidence 90%

Data Completeness 64%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Current price still underrates the chance
14-day trainer form is strong
Recent run was better than the finishing position

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Trigg rates as the value NAP at 38% fair chance versus 31.8% market probability (+16% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Noble Don

Sean Houlihan D J Jeffreys

27/P6- Draw 0 RPR 91 TS 48 +444.4% EV +3.0% Edge Data 73%

Showed promise in the point-to-point sphere in 2023 but his two efforts over hurdles in March leave a lot to be desired.

9.2 score

Lexington Wood

Sean Bowen Olly Murphy

7428- Draw 0 RPR 114 TS 92 +-61.0% EV +-29.9% Edge Data 64%

Showed promise in three Irish bumpers last year; sold to join current yard for £105,000 in November; novicey jumping, in at the deep end, on his hurdles debut in a Grade 2 at Kempton (2m, good to soft) when eighth of ten finishers in February; sure to have been well schooled since and could be a different proposition here.

13.6 score

Barry Fife

Jack Hogan Gary Hanmer

552/7- Draw 0 RPR 113 TS 84 +-22.5% EV +-0.8% Edge Data 82%

Made a promising debut in this sphere when second here (2m7f, good) in March 2025; beaten 25l when seventh of nine on his first run since back here (2m4f, soft) in March; step down in trip not certain to suit.

15/2

9.0 score

3rd

Not At That Price

Gavin Sheehan Charlie Longsdon

4/263- Draw 0 RPR 101 TS 74 +5.1% EV +0.9% Edge Data 64%

Showed up well until fading from two out on the second of two starts over hurdles; holds place claims.

7/4

12.2 score

2nd

Pic N Mix

Tom Cannon Nick Littmoden

76- Draw 0 +564.1% EV +4.5% Edge Data 55%

Down the field in a couple of bumpers for Michael Keady at the end of last year; this looks to be a tall order on his hurdles/stable debut.

40/1

10.0 score

6th

Pretty Darn Quick

Tabitha Worsley Sarah Hollinshead

898- Draw 0 +8,004.1% EV +8.0% Edge Data 55%

Has shown poor form in three bumpers; massive improvement required on this hurdles debut.

250/1

11.1 score

7th

Trigg Slims Favourite

Harry Skelton Dan Skelton

122- Draw 0 +16.0% EV +6.2% Edge Data 64%

Made a winning debut in a Worcester bumper in September and ran with credit when runner-up in similar events at Sedgefield and Chepstow; sure to have been well-schooled and should take plenty of beating on this first start over hurdles.

8/13F

15.8 score

1st

Maestrow

Beau Morgan(5) Ben Pauling

0079- Draw 0 RPR 61 TS 36 +191.3% EV +1.5% Edge Data 73%

Showed little in four bumpers but no surprise were he to show improvement on this hurdles debut for good yard.

125/1

8.3 score

5th

Pappariche

Jack Tudor Christian Williams

12/88- Draw 0 RPR 98 TS 74 +975.3% EV +6.5% Edge Data 73%

Won a small-field Irish point last February (heavy ground) but well beaten in a couple of Ffos Las maidens over hurdles last month.

66/1

10.8 score

4th

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