Uttoxeter · 4:50

QuinnBet Handicap Chase (ARC Summer Chase Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip2m5f

GoingGood

Field8 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

Ukantango rates as the value NAP at 38% fair chance versus 17.1% market probability (+90.1% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

12:45 1:20 1:55 2:35 3:10 3:50 4:20 4:50

Slims Favourite 88%

Uttoxeter · 4:50

Ukantango

4/1

+90.1% EV +21.0% Edge Model 38.0% vs Market 17.1%

Slims Outsider 88%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +90.1% EV

Ukantango

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Current price still underrates the chance
14-day trainer form is strong

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 67% complete.

Race Insight

Ukantango

Model vs Market 38.0% vs 17.1%

Expected Value +90.1%

Confidence 88%

Data Completeness 67%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Current price still underrates the chance
14-day trainer form is strong

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Ukantango rates as the value NAP at 38% fair chance versus 17.1% market probability (+90.1% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Tune In A Box

Stan Sheppard Tom Lacey

55732- Draw 0 OR 117 RPR 122 TS 115 +0.0% EV +13.0% Edge Data 55%

Has four wins over hurdles but is still looking for first chase success; has gone close on last two starts when placed; this drop back in trip may not suit as he looks a stayer in the making but he's not out of this.

12.4 score

Pony Soprano

Harry Skelton Dan Skelton

/3533- Draw 0 OR 117 RPR 0 TS 0 +-34.0% EV +-5.5% Edge Data 64%

Has shown solid form in at least three of his four races over fences without winning; the handicapper has given him a chance on this return from a three-month break; both first-time tongue-tie and cheekpieces go on and any improvement should see him go close.

5/2F

13.5 score

1st

Ukantango Slims Favourite

Sean Bowen Olly Murphy

44191- Draw 0 OR 116 RPR 0 TS 0 +90.1% EV +20.9% Edge Data 82%

Bumper winner and has three wins over hurdles; got off the mark on the return to fences when a convincing winner at Southwell (2m4f, good) last month; up 7lb but looks sure to give another bold account.

4/1

15.9 score

4th

Nickelforce

Mr Charlie Case(7) Ben Case

32214- Draw 0 OR 116 RPR 0 TS 0 +-50.7% EV +-3.0% Edge Data 82%

Has three wins over fences but was beaten 28l when fourth of five finishers at Newton Abbot (2m5f, good) four weeks ago on his return from a winter break; still 6lb higher than for his last success and others look better handicapped.

11/1

9.6 score

3rd

Doyouknowwhatimean

Benjamin Macey(5) Gary Hanmer

2PP4P- Draw 0 OR 115 RPR 0 TS 0 +-84.8% EV +-5.4% Edge Data 82%

Won four times for the Skeltons but, following a good second on his stable debut here (2m4f, heavy) in December, he has been pulled up on three of his last four starts; hard to fancy.

12/1

7.2 score

Grand Clermont

Rian Corcoran(5) David Pipe

17211- Draw 0 OR 114 RPR 0 TS 0 +17.8% EV +2.2% Edge Data 64%

Ex-French where all his winning was on heavy ground; difficult to assess on his British debut and the betting is probably the best guide to his chance.

14/1

11.1 score

6th

Ski Lodge

Gavin Sheehan Alan King

22F44- Draw 0 OR 114 RPR 0 TS 0 +-85.1% EV +-18.8% Edge Data 82%

Yet to get off the mark over fences in five starts; cheekpieces worn last time are retained; steps back in trip but is getting expensive to follow.

11/4

9.5 score

5th

Start Again

Jack Hogan Fergal O'Brien

/3713- Draw 0 OR 110 RPR 0 TS 0 +-35.6% EV +-1.2% Edge Data 64%

Got off the mark over hurdles in a maiden at Exeter (2m2f, good to firm) in October and ran well when third at Ascot the following month; steps up in trip on his chasing debut and should run well.

16/1

9.4 score

Jet Smart

Bryan Carver D Summersby

54311- Draw 0 OR 109 RPR 0 TS 0 +-31.1% EV +-2.2% Edge Data 64%

Won twice over fences last summer, including over C&D; won a couple of points last month and looks reasonably treated on this return to fences; not out of this.

13/2

11.5 score

2nd

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