Fontwell · 5:42

KSR Lighting, The Ultimate Lighting Solutions Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip2m5½f

GoingGood

Field9 runners

ClassClass 5

Race detail

Washington Singer rates as the value NAP at 33.5% fair chance versus 20.5% market probability (+27.4% EV).

5:42 6:12 6:42 7:12 7:42 8:12

Slims Favourite 90%

Fontwell · 5:42

Washington Singer

3/1

+27.4% EV +13.1% Edge Model 33.5% vs Market 20.5%

Slims Outsider 90%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +27.4% EV

Washington Singer

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

The market still matters, but the aim is to find where price and reality have drifted apart.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 79% complete.

Race Insight

Washington Singer

Model vs Market 33.5% vs 20.5%

Expected Value +27.4%

Confidence 90%

Data Completeness 79%

Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Washington Singer rates as the value NAP at 33.5% fair chance versus 20.5% market probability (+27.4% EV).

Full Runner List Back to board

Bradman

Kevin Bishop

4116P- Draw 0 OR 88 RPR 105 TS 103 +-70.7% EV +-4.8% Edge Data 64%

Back-to-back 2m3f wins here during the winter (good to soft/soft) but nothing like so effective in his last two races.

7.6 score

Purple Owl

NON-RUNNER David Pipe

2530P- Draw 0 OR 103 RPR 106 +0.0% EV +2.5% Edge Data 73%

Only 13l off the Supreme fourth Baron Noir in a Uttoxeter maiden but tailed off and pulled up in his two handicaps on either side of a wind operation; should be capable of better.

7.4 score

Jamaicaine

Harriet Tucker(7) Neil Mulholland

51114- Draw 0 OR 103 RPR 0 TS 0 +-4.6% EV +3.2% Edge Data 73%

Completed a hat-trick in handicap hurdles at about 2m3f (good to soft/soft) before finishing tailed off on her chase debut two months ago; even if back on song returned to hurdles, she's 10lb higher than for last win which was gained only narrowly.

9/1

11.5 score

4th

Miss Goldfire

Ciaran O'Shea(3) Harry Fry

2886P- Draw 0 OR 103 RPR 0 TS 0 +-53.0% EV +-4.8% Edge Data 82%

Two wins last spring on good ground included a 2m7f handicap off this very mark; clearly a contender if back to that level, though that's not been the case in her last four races.

4/1

9.4 score

1st

Washington Singer Slims Favourite

Dylan Johnston Chris Gordon

53451- Draw 0 OR 101 RPR 0 TS 0 +27.4% EV +13.1% Edge Data 82%

Hadn't always looked straightforward so the new cheekpieces were probably a factor in his narrow defeat of an in-form rival at Plumpton (2m4f, good); still nicely treated off 3lb higher.

9/4F

13.3 score

Hillsin

James Turner(5) Alan Jones

3F10P- Draw 0 OR 101 RPR 0 TS 0 +-2.0% EV +1.5% Edge Data 55%

Won in a small field at Exeter (2m2f, good to firm) in October but holding his form is becoming troublesome; risky enough.

18/1

9.4 score

Herbygoesbananas

J P O'Neill(7) Henrietta C Knight

/4663- Draw 0 OR 97 RPR 0 TS 0 +12.2% EV +5.1% Edge Data 82%

Bumper winner; 6-1 for handicap debut over 2m3f here four weeks ago and trailed the winner by 19l; only 2lb lower now.

100/30

11.4 score

3rd

Royal Rhythm

Isabelle Ryder(5) Jonjo & A J O'Neill

2255P- Draw 0 OR 93 RPR 0 TS 0 +-8.3% EV +1.0% Edge Data 64%

Winless since 2023 and he's been off the track since pulled up in 3m handicap in November; on a useful mark if resurgent after a break.

12/1

9.1 score

5th

Bread And Butter

Freddie Mitchell Cynthia Woods

8P485- Draw 0 OR 86 RPR 0 TS 0 +-89.6% EV +-6.7% Edge Data 91%

Veteran who has been out of sorts for a while now and he's looking sharply regressive.

18/1

6.0 score

6th

Marhaba Million

Paddy Hanlon(5) Syd Hosie

53P64- Draw 0 OR 84 RPR 0 TS 0 +-81.1% EV +-5.9% Edge Data 82%

Useful Flat winner so he's been disappointing over hurdles, though has finished within 10l of the winner in his last two handicaps (2m4f/3m); a visor replaces cheekpieces and this aid did nothing for him on the Flat.

16/1

6.9 score

7th

Mistress Fox

Bradley Harris(3) Neil Mulholland

8P884- Draw 0 OR 82 RPR 0 TS 0 +-64.5% EV +-4.0% Edge Data 82%

Some light at the end of the tunnel after a 13l defeat here in March (2m1f, good to soft) and this longer distance should suit as she's got a stout pedigree; quite interesting with that in mind.

10/1

7.9 score

2nd

Need The Rest Of The Board?

Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.

Back To Today’s Picks Membership