Fontwell · 6:12

Mercedes-Benz Of Chichester Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip2m1½f

GoingGood

Field14 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

La Cadalora rates as the value NAP at 36.7% fair chance versus 17.3% market probability (+8% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

5:42 6:12 6:42 7:12 7:42 8:12

Slims Favourite 90%

Fontwell · 6:12

La Cadalora

6/4

+8.0% EV +19.5% Edge Model 36.7% vs Market 17.3%

Slims Outsider 90%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +8.0% EV

La Cadalora

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance
14-day trainer form is strong

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 60%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 70% complete.

Race Insight

La Cadalora

Model vs Market 36.7% vs 17.3%

Expected Value +8.0%

Confidence 90%

Data Completeness 70%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance
14-day trainer form is strong

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 60%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

La Cadalora rates as the value NAP at 36.7% fair chance versus 17.3% market probability (+8% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Flash Man

Tom Cannon Toby Lawes

731- Draw 0 OR 110 RPR 0 TS 0 +-24.2% EV +11.5% Edge Data 82%

Two-time French Flat winner; getting it together over hurdles and penalised for beating a talented but frustrating horse of Dan Skelton's at Plumpton (2m, good); should have every chance.

11/8J

11.9 score

2nd

Bahati Bahati

Rian Corcoran(5) Gordon Treacy

/6P63- Draw 0 OR 100 RPR 0 TS 0 +-78.7% EV +-3.1% Edge Data 82%

Third of 12 and beaten about 13l in a Ffos Las novice last month (good to soft); that was better but others have more pressing claims.

22/1

6.3 score

8th

Hawa Jumeirah

Paul O'Brien Helen Nelmes

05- Draw 0 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-89.2% EV +-5.7% Edge Data 82%

Won twice on the Flat but nothing positive to take out of two hurdle runs for this yard.

200/1

5.8 score

5th

La Cadalora Slims Favourite

Bryan Carver Harry Fry

71- Draw 0 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +8.0% EV +19.5% Edge Data 82%

Fair stayer on the Flat for James Fanshawe; in this new headgear combination, she won comfortably at Wincanton (1m7f, good) and should progress some more.

11/8J

12.0 score

1st

Oblemenko

Caoilin Quinn Gary & Josh Moore

5646- Draw 0 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-82.0% EV +-2.9% Edge Data 82%

A long way behind Flash Man at Plumpton in April and was no better next time; handicaps will be more his thing.

66/1

5.8 score

11th

Regal Icon

James Best Seamus Mullins

50P6- Draw 0 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-69.5% EV +-1.3% Edge Data 82%

Mildly encouraging bumper debut but very opposable on subsequent exploits.

150/1

6.2 score

Chambers

Isabelle Ryder(5) Faye Bramley

Draw 0 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-3.5% EV +2.8% Edge Data 46%

Eight-race maiden on the Flat and ended up with a low handicap mark; he'd be a surprise winner on hurdle debut.

12/1

7.9 score

6th

Dodging The Bullet

Harry Bannister Richard J Bandey

800- Draw 0 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-36.4% EV +0.5% Edge Data 64%

Tailed off in all three runs over hurdles; also a maiden on the Flat, though was runner-up in a 1m3f AW handicap on final run in March; others are preferred.

66/1

6.5 score

4th

Moscow Star

James Davies Oliver Signy

554- Draw 0 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-78.8% EV +-3.4% Edge Data 64%

Ran respectably in two of his three bumpers, though only recorded RPRs in the high 80s; best watched on this switch to hurdles.

25/1

6.5 score

10th

Pivotal Days

Paddy Hanlon(5) Syd Hosie

4- Draw 0 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-75.4% EV +-2.3% Edge Data 82%

7f winner who joined this yard for 7,500gns; finished 22l behind La Cadalora on hurdle debut at Wincanton.

100/1

6.3 score

9th

Tetsworth

Freddie Mitchell Gary & Josh Moore

4U- Draw 0 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-83.9% EV +-3.5% Edge Data 82%

Showed ability on the Flat without winning; faced a stiff task on hurdle debut and was still in contention when unseating at Plumpton in a maiden won by Flash Man; only 11-2 that day and could have a role to play in first-time cheekpieces.

9/1

5.9 score

7th

Cockney Cleopatra

Richie McLernon Jim & Suzi Best

F55P- Draw 0 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-86.7% EV +-5.7% Edge Data 82%

Lightly raced mare; beaten only 6l in a Clonmel maiden on final run in Ireland; let down by her jumping on stable debut here four weeks ago (28-1).

66/1

6.2 score

Hollysaway

Ben Godfrey Ella Pickard

6- Draw 0 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-79.6% EV +-2.6% Edge Data 73%

200-1 when tailed off in a novice hurdle for mares at Chepstow in March.

300/1

6.0 score

12th

Mega Etoile

Jonathan Burke Henrietta C Knight

4084- Draw 0 OR 0 RPR 0 TS 0 +-78.1% EV +-3.7% Edge Data 82%

Latest fourth at Stratford (good) was a step in the right direction but she'll need to step up again, and probably by some margin.

12/1

6.7 score

3rd

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