Ascot · 1:45

Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% British EBF Fillies' Handicap

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip1m

GoingGood

Field10 runners

ClassClass 2

Race detail

Politely rates as the value NAP at 23.4% fair chance versus 11.4% market probability (+87.5% EV). Deedaydiva also shows a positive long-price edge. Price is shorter than the model makes it.

1:10 1:45 2:20 2:55 3:30 4:05 4:40

Slims Favourite 72%

Ascot · 1:45

Politely

7/1

+87.5% EV +12.0% Edge Model 23.4% vs Market 11.4%

Slims Outsider 72%

Ascot · 1:45

Deedaydiva

7/1

+23.6% EV +4.0% Edge Model 15.5% vs Market 11.4%

Value Thesis +87.5% EV

Politely

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
14-day trainer form is strong

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Deedaydiva carries 4 upside triggers.
Available race evidence is 79% complete.

Race Insight

Politely

Model vs Market 23.4% vs 11.4%

Expected Value +87.5%

Confidence 72%

Data Completeness 79%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
14-day trainer form is strong

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers 4

Race State Playable

Outsider EV +23.6%

Politely rates as the value NAP at 23.4% fair chance versus 11.4% market probability (+87.5% EV). Deedaydiva also shows a positive long-price edge. Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Zgharta

Oisin Murphy Andrew Balding

17540- Draw 5 OR 89 RPR 96 TS 86 +-50.1% EV +-9.0% Edge Data 64%

7/2

10.7 score

Alobayyah

Billy Loughnane William Haggas

1/85- Draw 2 OR 89 RPR 94 TS 81 +9.5% EV +2.4% Edge Data 73%

13/2

11.4 score

Radiant Beauty

James Doyle James Owen

4113-6 Draw 9 OR 87 RPR 96 TS 70 +-27.3% EV +-2.2% Edge Data 82%

15/2

10.1 score

Bella Perla

David Egan Tom Clover

19113- Draw 10 OR 85 RPR 96 TS 60 +-12.0% EV +-0.2% Edge Data 73%

14/1

9.3 score

Electrifarhh

Kieran Shoemark Ed Walker

41/2-7 Draw 1 OR 84 RPR 92 TS 72 +2.9% EV +0.9% Edge Data 73%

12/1

9.9 score

Song N Dance

Daniel Tudhope S Woods

6211-2 Draw 6 OR 84 RPR 97 TS 58 +-12.1% EV +-0.4% Edge Data 82%

9/1

10.2 score

Jannas Journey

Lauren Young(5) Jim Goldie

629-09 Draw 8 OR 81 RPR 102 TS 84 +-68.9% EV +-1.8% Edge Data 82%

33/1

6.1 score

Quamby

Callum Rodriguez David Simcock

5/233- Draw 7 OR 80 RPR 97 TS 76 +-65.6% EV +-5.7% Edge Data 73%

9/1

8.2 score

Deedaydiva Slims Outsider

Sean Levey Alan King

31-3 Draw 4 OR 88 RPR 94 TS 77 +23.6% EV +4.0% Edge Data 82%

7/1

11.5 score

Politely Slims Favourite

Saffie Osborne Martyn Meade

95-11 Draw 3 OR 86 RPR 90 TS 45 +87.5% EV +12.0% Edge Data 82%

7/1

12.7 score

Need The Rest Of The Board?

Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.

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