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Ascot · 3:30

Royal Ascot Local Schools Art Competition Handicap

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip1m2f
GoingGood
Field5 runners
ClassClass 3
No-bet race flagged. The model has not found enough edge to force a main play here.
Race detail

Devil's Peak rates as the value NAP at 29.6% fair chance versus 19.6% market probability (+33.3% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

1:10 1:45 2:20 2:55 3:30 4:05 4:40
Slims Favourite 51%
Ascot · 3:30

Devil's Peak

7/2
+33.3% EV +10.1% Edge Model 29.6% vs Market 19.6%
Slims Outsider 51%
No pick published yet.
Value Thesis +33.3% EV

Devil's Peak

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

  • Recent form profile is a major positive
  • 14-day trainer form is strong
  • Current price still underrates the chance
  • Recent run was better than the finishing position
Market Pressure No Bet

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

  • Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
  • Available race evidence is 70% complete.
Race Insight
Devil's Peak
Model vs Market 29.6% vs 19.6%
Expected Value +33.3%
Confidence 51%
Data Completeness 70%
  • Recent form profile is a major positive
  • 14-day trainer form is strong
  • Current price still underrates the chance
  • Recent run was better than the finishing position
Favourite Vulnerability
Stand Aside
Market Efficiency 0%
Outsider Triggers N/A
Race State No Bet
Outsider EV N/A

Devil's Peak rates as the value NAP at 29.6% fair chance versus 19.6% market probability (+33.3% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

Full Runner List Back to board
Waterford Castle
Billy Loughnane George Boughey
76-222 Draw 4 OR 84 RPR 93 TS 84 +-24.9% EV +-4.5% Edge Data 82%
15/8
21.5 score
Sassicaia
Saffie Osborne Owen Burrows
1-4 Draw 3 OR 81 RPR 90 +-33.3% EV +-5.7% Edge Data 64%
11/4
19.7 score
Devil's Peak Slims Favourite
James Doyle John & Thady Gosden
2434-2 Draw 5 OR 80 RPR 90 TS 76 +33.3% EV +10.1% Edge Data 64%
7/2
22.1 score
Enemy Agent
Harry Davies Simon & Ed Crisford
16 Draw 2 OR 80 RPR 88 TS 29 +19.4% EV +3.1% Edge Data 64%
9/1
18.0 score
Sintra
Oisin Murphy Andrew Balding
323 Draw 1 OR 75 RPR 94 TS 80 +-27.1% EV +-3.0% Edge Data 73%
4/1
18.8 score

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