Ascot · 4:40

Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Blue Handicap

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip6f

GoingGood

Field19 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

Juan Les Pins rates as the value NAP at 21.8% fair chance versus 11.2% market probability (+30.9% EV). True Promise also shows a positive long-price edge.

1:10 1:45 2:20 2:55 3:30 4:05 4:40

Slims Favourite 90%

Ascot · 4:40

Juan Les Pins

5/1

+30.9% EV +10.6% Edge Model 21.8% vs Market 11.2%

Slims Outsider 90%

Ascot · 4:40

True Promise

8/1

+27.9% EV +6.7% Edge Model 14.2% vs Market 7.5%

Value Thesis +30.9% EV

Juan Les Pins

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Current price still underrates the chance

Market Pressure No Bet

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

The market still matters, but the aim is to find where price and reality have drifted apart.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
True Promise carries 3 upside triggers.
Available race evidence is 73% complete.

Race Insight

Juan Les Pins

Model vs Market 21.8% vs 11.2%

Expected Value +30.9%

Confidence 90%

Data Completeness 73%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Current price still underrates the chance

Favourite Vulnerability

Stand Aside

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers 3

Race State No Bet

Outsider EV +27.9%

Juan Les Pins rates as the value NAP at 21.8% fair chance versus 11.2% market probability (+30.9% EV). True Promise also shows a positive long-price edge.

Full Runner List Back to board

Lord Roxby

Alex Jary(3) Nigel Tinkler

3662-9 Draw 8 OR 80 RPR 92 TS 89 +-39.8% EV +-0.4% Edge Data 64%

16/1

5.1 score

Daring Legend

Tyler Heard Mark Pattinson

160-20 Draw 10 OR 79 RPR 91 TS 86 +-47.3% EV +-0.4% Edge Data 82%

40/1

4.1 score

Cressida Wildes

Connor Planas(3) Phil McEntee

95-517 Draw 16 OR 79 RPR 90 TS 83 +34.9% EV +2.0% Edge Data 64%

33/1

5.2 score

Juan Les Pins Slims Favourite

Harry Davies Michael Appleby

021213 Draw 13 OR 77 RPR 91 TS 91 +30.9% EV +10.6% Edge Data 82%

5/1

7.7 score

Cajetan

Billy Loughnane Ruth Carr

-30004 Draw 2 OR 77 RPR 94 TS 72 +-67.0% EV +-3.1% Edge Data 73%

10/1

4.9 score

Twilight Jet

Sean Levey Jim & Suzi Best

35-585 Draw 9 OR 76 RPR 98 TS 91 +-40.3% EV +-0.2% Edge Data 73%

33/1

4.4 score

Waistcoat

Jack Mitchell Ross Burdon

292-19 Draw 14 OR 75 RPR 90 TS 72 +-20.8% EV +0.7% Edge Data 64%

16/1

5.4 score

True Promise Slims Outsider

Daniel Tudhope Fionn McSharry

325522 Draw 12 OR 75 RPR 91 TS 82 +27.9% EV +6.7% Edge Data 73%

8/1

7.0 score

Arantes Nascimento

Paddy Bradley Michael Attwater

-22271 Draw 7 OR 74 RPR 91 TS 83 +-27.7% EV +0.5% Edge Data 64%

8/1

6.2 score

The Bitter Moose

Saffie Osborne Patrick Chamings

2210-4 Draw 17 OR 73 RPR 89 TS 75 +-24.6% EV +0.5% Edge Data 64%

14/1

5.5 score

Rage Of Thunder

Rhys Clutterbuck Gary & Josh Moore

1222-0 Draw 6 OR 73 RPR 94 TS 85 +-62.0% EV +-1.4% Edge Data 82%

20/1

4.4 score

Azure Zain

Warren Fentiman(3) Richard & Peter Fahey

0335-0 Draw 5 OR 73 RPR 93 TS 88 +-17.5% EV +0.7% Edge Data 64%

20/1

5.2 score

Hectic

Clifford Lee Liam Bailey

19-444 Draw 1 OR 72 RPR 93 TS 82 +-53.6% EV +-0.6% Edge Data 82%

33/1

4.1 score

Tokyo Joe

Kieran Shoemark Ed Walker

35821- Draw 15 OR 71 RPR 89 TS 86 +-18.1% EV +1.8% Edge Data 64%

7/1

6.5 score

Thunderous Love

Rob Hornby Jonathan Portman

1520-5 Draw 4 OR 71 RPR 92 TS 82 +-78.2% EV +-4.6% Edge Data 82%

9/1

4.6 score

Fantasy Master

David Egan Robert Cowell

06551- Draw 3 OR 71 RPR 90 TS 76 +-61.6% EV +-3.6% Edge Data 64%

7/1

5.5 score

Dicko The Legend

Jason Watson Liam Bailey

04-752 Draw 18 OR 70 RPR 90 TS 81 +-61.8% EV +-2.7% Edge Data 73%

10/1

5.1 score

Neyva's Angel

Oisin Murphy Martin Dunne

4-5715 Draw 11 OR 69 RPR 90 TS 70 +-64.7% EV +-3.6% Edge Data 73%

8/1

5.2 score

Serenity Dream

Charles Bishop Tony Carroll

162638 Draw 19 OR 69 RPR 90 TS 80 +-83.2% EV +-3.0% Edge Data 82%

16/1

3.8 score

Need The Rest Of The Board?

Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.

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