Ascot · 4:05

Mariner Systems Fillies' Handicap

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip1m2f

GoingGood

Field9 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

Naga rates as the value NAP at 39.6% fair chance versus 29.4% market probability (+9% EV).

1:10 1:45 2:20 2:55 3:30 4:05 4:40

Slims Favourite 85%

Ascot · 4:05

Naga

7/4

+9.0% EV +10.2% Edge Model 39.6% vs Market 29.4%

Slims Outsider 85%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +9.0% EV

Naga

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
14-day trainer form is strong

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

The market still matters, but the aim is to find where price and reality have drifted apart.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 73% complete.

Race Insight

Naga

Model vs Market 39.6% vs 29.4%

Expected Value +9.0%

Confidence 85%

Data Completeness 73%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
14-day trainer form is strong

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Naga rates as the value NAP at 39.6% fair chance versus 29.4% market probability (+9% EV).

Full Runner List Back to board

Naga Slims Favourite

James Doyle John & Thady Gosden

6511-1 Draw 9 OR 85 RPR 89 TS 76 +9.0% EV +10.2% Edge Data 73%

7/4

15.9 score

Nanino Niyati

Callum Rodriguez Owen Burrows

92138- Draw 4 OR 82 RPR 86 TS 63 +-15.8% EV +0.2% Edge Data 64%

14/1

10.2 score

Lady Ridgewood

Kieran Shoemark Ian Williams

/231-6 Draw 7 OR 82 RPR 85 TS 50 +150.3% EV +5.0% Edge Data 64%

33/1

10.8 score

Moon Angel

Marco Ghiani Stuart Williams

/1331- Draw 8 OR 79 RPR 86 TS 81 +-56.7% EV +-4.0% Edge Data 64%

17/2

9.7 score

Tryst

Billy Loughnane George Boughey

821-42 Draw 6 OR 84 RPR 85 TS 63 +-15.4% EV +0.8% Edge Data 73%

7/2

13.4 score

Bint Kilfrush

Clifford Lee James Tate

15 Draw 3 OR 80 RPR 82 TS 50 +-41.1% EV +-2.0% Edge Data 64%

10/1

10.0 score

Venetia

Edward Greatrex Ralph Beckett

623- Draw 2 OR 77 RPR 84 TS 51 +-52.0% EV +-4.7% Edge Data 64%

6/1

10.6 score

Ruby Wedding

Nicola Currie Andrew Balding

35-4 Draw 5 OR 76 RPR 83 TS 68 +-80.3% EV +-5.6% Edge Data 82%

10/1

7.8 score

Room Fourteen

Saffie Osborne James Fanshawe

683-31 Draw 1 OR 72 RPR 87 TS 80 +-19.6% EV +-0.1% Edge Data 73%

7/1

11.6 score

Need The Rest Of The Board?

Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.

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