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Lingfield · 1:28

William Hill Oaks Trial Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip1m3½f
GoingGood To Firm
Field5 runners
ClassClass 1
No-bet race flagged. The model has not found enough edge to force a main play here.
Race detail

Bloom rates as the value NAP at 25.6% fair chance versus 16.3% market probability (+53.9% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

12:55 1:28 1:58 2:40 3:15 3:50 4:25
Slims Favourite 47%
Lingfield · 1:28

Bloom

5/1
+53.9% EV +9.3% Edge Model 25.6% vs Market 16.3%
Slims Outsider 47%
No pick published yet.
Value Thesis +53.9% EV

Bloom

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

  • Recent form profile is a major positive
  • Ratings stack up strongly against this field
  • 14-day trainer form is strong
  • Current price still underrates the chance
Market Pressure No Bet

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

  • Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
  • Available race evidence is 67% complete.
Race Insight
Bloom
Model vs Market 25.6% vs 16.3%
Expected Value +53.9%
Confidence 47%
Data Completeness 67%
  • Recent form profile is a major positive
  • Ratings stack up strongly against this field
  • 14-day trainer form is strong
  • Current price still underrates the chance
Favourite Vulnerability
Stand Aside
Market Efficiency 0%
Outsider Triggers N/A
Race State No Bet
Outsider EV N/A

Bloom rates as the value NAP at 25.6% fair chance versus 16.3% market probability (+53.9% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board
Amora Queen
Silvestre De Sousa Charlie Johnston
110-2 Draw 2 OR 93 RPR 110 TS 93 +15.5% EV +1.8% Edge Data 73%
17/2
18.0 score
Bloom Slims Favourite
Tom Marquand A P O'Brien
71-3 Draw 5 OR 99 RPR 101 TS 94 +53.9% EV +9.3% Edge Data 64%
5/1
21.3 score
Cameo
Ryan Moore A P O'Brien
0314-5 Draw 1 OR 95 RPR 105 TS 89 +-15.5% EV +-3.1% Edge Data 64%
10/3
20.0 score
Prizeland
David Probert Andrew Balding
41-1 Draw 4 OR 85 RPR 98 TS 28 +12.8% EV +2.3% Edge Data 73%
11/2
19.5 score
Romantic Symphony
William Buick Charlie Appleby
1-1 Draw 3 OR 92 RPR 104 TS 76 +-30.4% EV +-10.3% Edge Data 73%
7/4
21.2 score

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