Lingfield · 2:40

William Hill Chartwell Fillies' Stakes (Group 3)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip7f

GoingGood To Firm

Field8 runners

ClassClass 1

Race detail

Royal Velvet rates as the value NAP at 37.5% fair chance versus 28.3% market probability (+21.7% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

12:55 1:28 1:58 2:40 3:15 3:50 4:25

Slims Favourite 83%

Lingfield · 2:40

Royal Velvet

9/4

+21.7% EV +9.2% Edge Model 37.5% vs Market 28.3%

Slims Outsider 83%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +21.7% EV

Royal Velvet

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance
Ratings stack up strongly against this field

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 67% complete.

Race Insight

Royal Velvet

Model vs Market 37.5% vs 28.3%

Expected Value +21.7%

Confidence 83%

Data Completeness 67%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance
Ratings stack up strongly against this field

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Royal Velvet rates as the value NAP at 37.5% fair chance versus 28.3% market probability (+21.7% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Copacabana Sands

Ryan Moore Andrew Balding

51146- Draw 6 OR 105 RPR 117 TS 91 +-36.2% EV +-9.7% Edge Data 64%

2/1

15.0 score

Dash Of Azure

Hector Crouch Ralph Beckett

70128- Draw 4 OR 101 RPR 112 TS 86 +-38.7% EV +-6.1% Edge Data 64%

4/1

13.1 score

Fouette

Daniel Muscutt James Horton

1165-0 Draw 3 OR 92 RPR 100 +46.5% EV +1.6% Edge Data 64%

33/1

10.3 score

Havana Pusey

Joe Leavy John Gallagher

300-01 Draw 2 OR 96 RPR 108 TS 100 +-2.2% EV +0.4% Edge Data 82%

12/1

11.8 score

La Brodeuse

Tom Marquand Kevin Ryan

15437- Draw 5 OR 93 RPR 104 TS 93 +4.1% EV +0.7% Edge Data 73%

17/1

11.1 score

Mandurah

Pat Cosgrave Ed Walker

/0972- Draw 7 OR 89 RPR 101 TS 80 +92.4% EV +3.0% Edge Data 64%

Winning 2yo debut was followed by a stout effort in a Group 3 over C&D (also good to firm) when leading from some way out and looked like holding on but couldn't quite sustain her effort; has rarely had her ground since but she ran well against an improver on AW (7f) in October on final start for the Crisfords; sold for 150,000gns; she might well have a good 4yo season.

33/1

11.0 score

Royal Velvet Slims Favourite

William Buick William Knight

1815-1 Draw 8 OR 99 RPR 110 TS 95 +21.7% EV +9.2% Edge Data 73%

9/4

17.0 score

Sunlit Uplands

David Probert Stuart Williams

11764- Draw 1 OR 93 RPR 104 TS 79 +15.1% EV +1.0% Edge Data 64%

22/1

10.7 score

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