Lingfield · 1:58

William Hill Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes (Listed Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip1m3½f

GoingGood To Firm

Field6 runners

ClassClass 1

Race detail

Isaac Newton rates as the value NAP at 22.5% fair chance versus 19.7% market probability (+8% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

12:55 1:28 1:58 2:40 3:15 3:50 4:25

Slims Favourite 50%

Lingfield · 1:58

Isaac Newton

4/1

+8.0% EV +2.8% Edge Model 22.5% vs Market 19.7%

Slims Outsider 50%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +8.0% EV

Isaac Newton

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Recent form profile is a major positive
14-day trainer form is strong
Current price still underrates the chance

Market Pressure No Bet

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 64% complete.

Race Insight

Isaac Newton

Model vs Market 22.5% vs 19.7%

Expected Value +8.0%

Confidence 50%

Data Completeness 64%

Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Recent form profile is a major positive
14-day trainer form is strong
Current price still underrates the chance

Favourite Vulnerability

Stand Aside

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State No Bet

Outsider EV N/A

Isaac Newton rates as the value NAP at 22.5% fair chance versus 19.7% market probability (+8% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

A Taste Of Glory

Daniel Muscutt Andrew Balding

4410-1 Draw 5 OR 84 RPR 104 TS 75 +166.2% EV +4.8% Edge Data 64%

35/1

14.1 score

Balzac

Silvestre De Sousa Jane Chapple-Hyam

3-13 Draw 2 OR 97 RPR 108 TS 92 +209.9% EV +8.3% Edge Data 64%

25/1

15.7 score

Bay Of Brilliance

Hector Crouch Ralph Beckett

511- Draw 1 OR 97 RPR 105 TS 89 +-27.6% EV +-3.4% Edge Data 64%

11/2

15.4 score

Isaac Newton Slims Favourite

Ryan Moore A P O'Brien

2154-4 Draw 4 OR 106 RPR 113 TS 98 +8.0% EV +2.8% Edge Data 64%

4/1

18.1 score

Maho Bay

William Buick Charlie Appleby

1-1 Draw 6 OR 104 RPR 115 TS 99 +-35.9% EV +-11.2% Edge Data 64%

7/4

18.4 score

Maltese Cross

Tom Marquand William Haggas

21-1 Draw 3 OR 96 RPR 110 TS 105 +-10.3% EV +-1.2% Edge Data 64%

3/1

18.3 score

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