Lingfield · 3:15

William Hill Each Way Extra Handicap

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip7½f

GoingGood To Firm

Field8 runners

ClassClass 3

Race detail

Apotheosis rates as the value NAP at 29.7% fair chance versus 13.4% market probability (+107.6% EV). Mr Swivell also shows a positive long-price edge. Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

12:55 1:28 1:58 2:40 3:15 3:50 4:25

Slims Favourite 73%

Lingfield · 3:15

Apotheosis

6/1

+107.6% EV +16.2% Edge Model 29.7% vs Market 13.4%

Slims Outsider 73%

Lingfield · 3:15

Mr Swivell

15/2

+86.9% EV +10.9% Edge Model 22.0% vs Market 11.1%

Value Thesis +107.6% EV

Apotheosis

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Recent form profile is a major positive
Current price still underrates the chance
14-day trainer form is strong

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Mr Swivell carries 5 upside triggers.
Available race evidence is 73% complete.

Race Insight

Apotheosis

Model vs Market 29.7% vs 13.4%

Expected Value +107.6%

Confidence 73%

Data Completeness 73%

Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Recent form profile is a major positive
Current price still underrates the chance
14-day trainer form is strong

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers 5

Race State Playable

Outsider EV +86.9%

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Full Runner List Back to board

Mr Swivell Slims Outsider

Ray Dawson Kevin Philippart De Foy

21820- Draw 4 OR 95 RPR 106 TS 95 +86.9% EV +10.9% Edge Data 73%

15/2

14.7 score

Back In Black

Daniel Muscutt James Fanshawe

5324-4 Draw 1 OR 94 RPR 107 TS 75 +-61.7% EV +-20.2% Edge Data 73%

7/4

13.3 score

Apotheosis Slims Favourite

Tom Marquand Simon & Ed Crisford

001-02 Draw 6 OR 94 RPR 104 TS 61 +107.6% EV +16.2% Edge Data 73%

6/1

15.8 score

Christian David

Joe Leavy Richard Hannon

01-093 Draw 5 OR 91 RPR 106 TS 85 +-13.7% EV +-0.8% Edge Data 82%

8/1

12.2 score

Sword

David Probert Stuart Williams

00820- Draw 7 OR 86 RPR 105 TS 93 +-17.4% EV +-0.7% Edge Data 73%

16/1

10.4 score

The Dragon King

Hector Crouch Clive Cox

51-255 Draw 3 OR 83 RPR 108 TS 76 +-35.9% EV +-3.5% Edge Data 82%

15/2

11.5 score

Dragon Leader

Georgia Dobie Clive Cox

/0-635 Draw 8 OR 81 RPR 107 TS 92 +-33.3% EV +-2.9% Edge Data 73%

17/2

11.4 score

Foreseen

Silvestre De Sousa Tony Carroll

1-6134 Draw 2 OR 76 RPR 105 TS 83 +13.8% EV +0.9% Edge Data 82%

20/1

10.7 score

Need The Rest Of The Board?

Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.

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